Archives for March 2022

Reflections on the Purpose of Life

I did not know who Dr. Sarah Hallberg was till yesterday morning. By the end of the day, however, I had known her well. At least that is what I felt after seeing her multiple videos and reading about her outstanding work in the field of reversing type 2 diabetes without medications or surgery.

And the reason I got to know about Sarah and her work just yesterday was because I read news of her passing away a day before yesterday, after suffering from advanced lung cancer, at the age of fifty.

Sarah was revered in the medical community, especially those working in the field of diabetes, for the path-breaking work she did over the past few years. As much as I got to read and know about her, all I could gather was the amount of good karma she had accumulated over the years for helping diabetics sort out their lives through just food and lifestyle. The best part about Sarah’s story is that her work did not stop even after she got to know she was down with a terminal disease. She was selfless to the core.

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Why Value Investing Works

The Sketchbook of Wisdom: Special Rs 200 Discount till 31st March 2022

Buy your copy of the book Morgan Housel calls “a masterpiece.” It contains 50 timeless ideas – from Lord Krishna to Charlie Munger, Socrates to Warren Buffett, and Steve Jobs to Naval Ravikant – as they apply to our lives today. Click here to buy now and claim Rs 200 discount. Offer valid till 31st March 2022.

Jack Schwager, the author of Market Wizards series, when answering a question on whether value investing works, turned to the wisdom of Joel Greenblatt, one of the foremost experts on the subject.

Schwager quoted this from his interview with Greenblatt –

Value investing doesn’t always work. The market doesn’t always agree with you. Over time, value is roughly the way the market prices stocks, but over the short term, which sometimes can be as long as two or three years, there are periods when it doesn’t work. And that is a very good thing.
The fact that the value approach doesn’t work over periods of time is precisely the reason why it continues to work over the long term.

Why Value Investing Works - Safal Niveshak

You see, the biggest problems in the long-term practice of value investing are that –

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The Need for an Investment Premise

This is an excerpt from my upcoming book – Shut Up and Wait: And Other Timeless Principles to Win at Investing and in Life – which I aim to release in August 2022. Click here to read more about the book and download five chapters.

One of the most important lessons I have learned as a writer is that every great story, bestselling novel, or a blockbuster movie’s screenplay began with a ‘premise, that, in simple words, is the foundational idea that expresses the plot in simple terms.

A strong premise in writing or storytelling ideally includes three elements. First, the description of the main character or protagonist of the story – “misfit team of deep-core drillers.” Second, the protagonist’s goal – “save Earth from the impact of a large asteroid.” And third, the situation or obstacle the protagonist find themselves in – “how to destroy the asteroid the size of Texas.”

A good premise serves as both a hook for the reader or the audience and a guiding light for the writer, providing a storytelling roadmap from the start of a story to its end.

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Of Ben Graham, Investing, and Eternity

The Sketchbook of Wisdom: Did you get your copy?

The Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing created a wonderful video in 2013 titled ‘Legacy of Ben Graham,’ which contains bytes from some of his students on how Graham’s teachings changed their lives.

Marshall Weinberg, one of the students from Graham’s class said that the biggest lesson he drew out of that class was on long-term thinking. Here’s what he said –

One sentence changed my life…Ben Graham opened the course by saying: ‘If you want to make money in Wall Street you must have the proper psychological attitude. No one expresses it better than Spinoza the philosopher.’
When he said that, I nearly jumped out of my course. What? I suddenly look up, and he said, and I remember exactly what he said: ‘Spinoza said you must look at things in the aspect of eternity.’ And that’s what suddenly hooked me on Ben Graham.

Spinoza actually said, “Sub specie aeternitatis,” which translates to “under the aspect of eternity,” or “from the perspective of the eternal.”

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The Dangers of Averaging Down

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One of the biggest flaws in my decision-making process caused me a lot of anguish and a few losses in the early part of my investing career.

It was the idea of averaging down or buying more of the stocks from my portfolio after they fell from my original buying prices just so that I could ‘average down’ my costs.

The math is simple. Assume you buy 100 shares of ABC Co. for ₹120 per share. Your total investment is ₹12,000. The stock falls to ₹90, because the stock market falls, and you buy 100 more shares. Your new investment is ₹9000. Your total investment is ₹21000 (12000 + 9000) and for a total holding of 200 shares, your average cost now stands at ₹105. You have ‘averaged down’ your cost.

Now, this is not a problem if the underlying business remains good but the stock has fallen just because the overall market has taken a hit.

Anyways, ABC Co. falls from ₹90 to ₹60 because there is a rumour in the market about some mismanagement in the company, but you ignore that. You buy 100 more shares for a total investment of ₹6000. Your total cost now is ₹27000. Your total holding is 300 shares. Your average cost of total holding is ₹90.

You feel happy seeing your average cost come down, from ₹120 for the first transaction to ₹90 for the total of three transactions.

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