Vishal Khandelwal

An Excel to Save Your Life

While India is ranked amongst the skinniest nations in the world (as a large percentage of people cannot afford food), there is no doubt we are getting fatter and unhealthier.

This is especially true of an average adult in urban India, who combines the stress of work with junk food and with sedentary lifestyle, all of which makes for a lethal combination.

Now, many people erroneously suggest that education is the answer to achieving good health. Really?

In 2014, we have more education, information, awareness, policies, programs and getting-in-shape resolutions, than any other time in history. But the fact is that in 2014, more people reading this would get weightier, and unhealthier.

The simple reason you see more young people visiting doctors and hospitals is – we have created a lifestyle that is unsustainable.

What My Little Girl Taught Me About Investing Wisely

“Why can’t I buy that toy, papa?”

“You already have another one like that.”

“But why can’t I buy one more?”

“You won’t like playing with two similar toys. Isn’t it?”

“Why are you saying this?”

“I know that dear, because I was a kid myself!”

“Why have you grown up, papa? If you were still small, you could have played and enjoyed with me and my toys!”

“Everyone has to grow up, my baby!”

“Why papa?”

Tata Motors: Will You Play Devil’s Advocate for Me?

Rolf Dobelli wrote this in The Art of Thinking Clearly…

Have you ever bitten your tongue in a meeting? Surely. You sit there, say nothing and nod along to proposals. After all, you don’t want to be the (eternal) naysayer. Moreover, you might not be 100% sure why you disagree, whereas the others are unanimous – and far from stupid. So you keep your mouth shut for another day.

When everyone thinks and acts like this, groupthink is at work: this is where a group of smart people makes reckless decisions because everyone aligns their opinions with the supposed consensus. Thus, motions are passed that each individual group member would have rejected if no peer pressure had been involved.

Nowhere do you see groupthink than in the world of business and investing.

Whether it’s the case of a CEO allocating capital, or an investor doing so, it’s easy to fall into groupthink and allocate precious cash on things that “seem” right because others also think so, rather than those that “are” right.

Launching StockTalk 3.0

I am writing this in the month of January, so this is not an April Fool’s joke. 🙂

I am planning to re-launch the StockTalk initiative, and in a new avatar (again!).

If you have been a reader of Safal Niveshak for long, you know that I launched the original StockTalk initiative in November 2011.

My plan was to take requests from readers to research on specific companies and write reports explaining their businesses, without making any recommendations.

However, I stopped writing those reports after covering twelve companies.

How to Lose Big Money in 2014

“All men’s miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone.” ~ Blaise Pascal

One of the many investing mistakes I made during the early part of my investing career was to be rash with cash.

Any extra cash I ever had was immediately invested in the stock market. Cash in bank was considered a wasted opportunity and every chance to “let-me-buy-stocks-now” was grabbed upon.

In the pre-2008 period, I invested a lot of the cash while keeping my eye on stock prices that were rising incessantly.

I see a lot of investors making a similar mistake now.

After getting frustrated by the way stock prices have performed over the past few years, any stock market rise is first disbelieved and then when prices rise further, people jump in so as to not miss out on any further rise.

2014 – The Year of Inversion

Happy New Year to all reading this blog!

Here is a quick thought on the year ahead.

At Safal Niveshak, 2014 will be a year of inversion of the traditional dictum – “What doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger”.

Instead, this year, the motto will be – “What doesn’t make you stronger will kill you”.

I dedicate this year to Charlie Munger and his thought – “All I want to know is where I’m going to die so I’ll never go there.”

This implies that in 2014, we will discuss ideas –

Less of how to earn great returns, and more on how to avoid permanent capital loss;
Less on how to pick the great stocks, and more on how to avoid the dangerous ones;
Less on things to do for investing success, and more on things to avoid for investing failure.

My Biggest Investing Mistake of 2013

“A life spent making mistakes is not only more honorable but more useful than a life spent doing nothing.” ~ George Bernard Shaw

A wise man once said that a person who doesn’t make any mistakes in stock market investing is someone who has never bought a stock.

For most of us investors, however, we are left with a lot of regrets come year end…

Regrets like…

I should have bought this stock a few months ago!
I should have sold this stock a few months ago!
Why did I sell this stock!
Why didn’t I buy that stock!
I made so many mistakes this year!

Needless to say, mistakes lead to resentments, resentments make you miserable, and being miserable is always painful.

When I look back at my mistakes this year, I see one that was really up there.

My 2014 Wish for You – Be Miserable

“Why are you in such a sad mood, Ravi?” I asked my friend as he visited us with his family this Christmas.

“You should see my stock portfolio Vishal!”

“Why, what happened?”

“Oh, it’s up just 30% this year!”

“30%! And you are still sad?”

“Yeah, because this could have been more than 30% had I not missed a few amazing stocks like…”

“Like?”

“Like Mindtree that is up 120% in the last one year, Cera Sanitaryware that is up 90%, Eicher that is up 80%, Aurobindo Pharma that is up 105%…and then there are the ones like Relaxo and Ashiana Housing, that are up 100% since April.

Is this Newspaper Stock Worth Owning?

Statutory Warning: This report may cause a reaction, and acting on it can be injurious to your wealth.

Let me be upfront here. Across all my Workshops and other interactions with Safal Niveshak tribesmen, I have maintained my stance on the futility of reading newspapers, especially to get your investing ideas.

My stance is that the more you read newspapers, the less you would know because everyone is looking at the same things with similar pair of eyes. Moreover, newspapers create recency bias, which is such a destructive force when it comes to making investment decisions.

So I have been happy to know all this while that newspaper is a dying industry.

Even Warren Buffett has mentioned this in the past that newspapers have lost a notch in their economic attractiveness from the days when they appeared to have a bullet-proof franchise. Over time, he expects the competitive strength of newspapers to gradually erode.

Anyways, given the price wars being fought by top newspapers in cities, it surely seems that circulation is under pressure. After all, everyone’s getting information online nowadays.

A Quiz to Test Your Financial Intelligence

Finance Intelligence Quiz

[WpProQuiz 10]

If you cannot see the Quiz above, open this post on Safal Niveshak’s website and then participate.

Don’t worry if you score low, for a truly humble acknowledgment of ignorance is the first step to wisdom. 🙂

All the best!