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Let me start today’s post by asking you a question.
Assume that India is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian virus, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed:
- If program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.
- If program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that no people will be saved.
Which of the two programs would you favor?
Well, if you think like 72% among a few hundred smart physicians who were asked a similar question by the Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman, you will choose option A, the safe-and-sure strategy.
Most doctors would rather save a certain number of people for sure than risk the possibility that everyone might die.
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