Blog on Value Investing | Safal Niveshak

How to Survive the Death of Businesses

Businesses die, like we do.

However, in contrast to us (I mean, humans…because some bots and aliens may also be reading this post) gradually increasing our average life expectancy over decades, more businesses are dying faster than any time in history.

While there is no real research done on Indian businesses, as per Credit Suisse, the average life span of S&P 500 companies in the US, which stood at 60 years in the 1950s, has now fallen to under 20 years.

The biggest culprit for this is the disruptive force of technology, which is killing off older companies earlier and at a much faster rate than decades ago.

Anyways, today’s post is not about what businesses can do to stave off their deaths, which is mostly inevitable in these rapidly changing times.

How to Win At Investing (And At Anything in Life)

I wrote yesterday about five ways to destroy wealth in the stock market.

As an antidote, and especially as you may be sailing through the vicissitudes of ecstasy (after seeing your stocks surge yesterday) and, at the same time, misery (for not buying more stocks before yesterday), today I share with you one way to win at the game of investing, or at anything in life.

That way, my dear friend, is of equanimity, which is calmness and composure, especially in a difficult situation.

Indian scriptures define it better as samabhaav, which means “sameness of things” or samatvam, which means “evenness of mind.”

5 Ways to Destroy Your Wealth

It’s common if you are wealthy to worry about losing your fortune due to forces beyond your control. Like market meltdowns or economic stagnation.

But what many of us don’t realize is that our own behavior may be the root of significant losses.

Doing the Work is NOT Enough

Yesterday did not start on a good note for me.

I broke three cups.

Sunday is when I usually prepare tea for the house. As I was pulling out three teacups from the cabinet, all with a single hand while holding the cabinet door with another, one of them slipped.

I watched, aghast, wanting time to stop. But it didn’t. In fact, it seemed to move faster. The cup was lost.

However, if that was not all, as I vainly attempted to catch it in that millisecond, the other two cups also dropped out of my hand.

All three were gone.

As I was cleaning up the mess, a realization struck. Maybe the second-best thing for me to do to save the two other cups was to let the first one go. The best thing, of course, would have been to not try pulling them out of the cabinet with one hand.

Life teaches us lessons almost all the time. We only need to observe well, and sometimes be prepared to hear the sound of breaking glass.

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Investor, Pay Attention

Note: This is an excerpt from the article Where Do Great (Investment) Ideas Come From, which I wrote for the May 2015 issue of our premium newsletter, Value Investing Almanack. To read the complete article and our vast archives spanning 4+ years, please click here to subscribe.

Consider that you are looking to buy a stock and the two that you come across on your screen are, say, Company A and Company B. Here are a few data points about the two companies, which are the only factors you would look at while making your decision. Look at them and think which one you would rather purchase –

Did you make a decision? Before you read on, jot down either Company A or Company B. Now I’m going to give you some more data points on these companies. No information has been changed, but some has been added.

Which stock would you rather purchase now? Again, write down your answer. I’m going to present the options a third time, again adding one new element.

Now, which of the two would you prefer?

Safal Niveshak, Uncopyrighted

January 11 2013 was a sad day for the Internet world. That day, Internet pioneer and open information activist Aaron Swartz committed suicide at a young age of 26.

Swartz’s “crime” – he had logged into JSTOR (Journal Storage), a database of scholarly articles, and rapidly downloaded those articles with the intent to make them public.

He didn’t “hack” the network to secure those downloads. MIT is anyways an open network.

He didn’t crack any special password system to get behind JSTOR’s digital walls. All he did was figure out how JSTOR was filing the articles that he wanted and wrote a simple script to quickly gather those articles and then copy them to his computer.

If Swartz had lived to be convicted of the charges against him, he either had to accept the label of a criminal and go to jail for 50 years or fight a million-dollar lawsuit.

Aaron decided to take a third option. He hanged himself!

Stock Market Crisis: Your Big Questions…Answered

Here is my attempt to answers a few key questions I have received from Safal Niveshak readers on the current turmoil in the stock market.

You won’t find perfect answers below, but this is just my attempt to help you get over your fears, which may otherwise lead you to act in haste, which can cause some damage to your process of long term wealth creation.

Let’s start right here.

1. Why is the market crashing?
It hasn’t crashed…so far! The BSE-Sensex is down just 6% from its peak this year. BSE-Smallcap is down 14%. BSE-Midcap is down 11%. This isn’t a crash!

If you think it is, you maybe be suffering from ‘denominator blindness’, which is the tendency to focus on the absolute number then the percentage decline. Or you just seem to have been spoilt by rising markets over the past few years and were not investing in 2008 when the last real crash happened. That was painful for people who experienced it with their money (and not just their eyes and ears). We have not seen anything like that since then.

Being Prepared

On July 20, 1969, Neil Armstrong and Edwin Aldrin became the first men to walk on the moon. It’s been 50 years since then, and it remains one of the single greatest achievements of modern human history.

My father, who was nearing 20 then, had in fact transcribed the event as it was happening, while listening to Voice of America station on the radio.

Here is his transcript (click on the image below to download a clearer version my father copied from his original transcript on the day the astronauts landed back on Earth).

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Picking Stocks Like a Mathematician

Have you ever noticed that finding an available spot in the multilevel car parking in any mall or shopping complex is an interesting exercise in mental maths? Let me explain.

Whenever I enter the parking area, I often try to optimize, i.e., find a spot near the lift lobby/staircase. Which means the moment I enter the parking area, I have to forego the easily available spots and keep driving towards the lift lobby and then hope that there’s a spot available near it. If there isn’t, then I would have to drive up to the next floor, which is kind of worse than the case where I would have taken the first few available spots near the parking entrance. So how many first available spots should I pass before I decide to stop searching?

It turns out that mathematicians have spent centuries thinking about this class of problems. They call it The Optimal Stopping problem.
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Two Big Lessons from History

I was never fond of history in school. I am, now.

The difference, as I realize, has occurred due to the way the subject was taught to me in school and the way I have come to look at it over the past few years.

What I was taught in school were the details – British Rule, French Revolution, World Wars, etc. – and the rote learning that had to accompany it.

What I now love about the subject is simply the concept of it, how we have come to be since humans first walked the Earth, how our thinking has evolved, and how some things have not changed at all.