Blog on Value Investing | Safal Niveshak

The Illusion of Free Will

How many times have you stepped into a public bathroom and felt disgusted by puddles of spilled over liquid around the porcelain urinal?

We all know that it’s the result of men relieving themselves carelessly. When people know they aren’t required to clean their own mess, they’re least bothered about aiming properly to minimize the spillage.

Maybe putting up notices like – Please piss responsibly – would help. But we know most people don’t heed to such requests. So the architects of Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam came up with a brilliant strategy. They put a fly in each urinal.
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Stock Analysis and the Illusion of Control

“The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance – it is the illusion of knowledge.” ~ Daniel Boorstin

The Art of Thinking Clearly is a nice book from Rolf Dobelli. In one chapter, Dobelli shares a couple of instances…

Every day, shortly before nine o’clock, a man with a red hat stands in a square and begins to wave his cap around wildly. After five minutes he disappears. One day, a policeman comes up to him and asks: ‘What are you doing?’ ‘I’m keeping the giraffes away.’ ‘But there aren’t any giraffes here.’ ‘Well, I must be doing a good job, then.’

A friend with a broken leg was stuck in bed and asked me to pick up a lottery ticket for him. I went to the store, checked a few boxes, wrote his name on it and paid. As I handed him the copy of the ticket, he balked. ‘Why did you fill it out? I wanted to do that. I’m never going to win anything with your numbers!’ ‘Do you really think it affects the draw if you pick the numbers?’ I inquired. He looked at me blankly.

Consider my own example. I was once a die-hard cricket fan…or let me say I was a fan of only watching India win (and hated it when they lost).

So, during crunch matches, I used to change my seating places in front of the TV frequently to hit upon one from when India started doing well.

I got up from that place, and the Indians either lost a wicket or dropped a catch, so I stuck to that place throughout the crunch situation.

I thought my seating place controlled the fate of the Indian team, which was such a stupid thought.

What to Do With Losing Stocks in Your Portfolio

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I met a gentleman (a friend’s brother) recently who owns 45+ stocks in his portfolio, most of which are bad businesses – he realizes that – and are deep into losses despite the decent run in the stock market over the last few years.

“What should I do with these stocks?” he asked me. And he is not the only one who’s asked me this question in the past. I have met numerous people over the past few years who have held on to bad businesses and losing stocks in their portfolios, and not knowing what to do with them.

One way people look at such stocks is – “Oh, this XYZ stock is already in a deep loss. What would I get by selling it anyways?”

Another way is – “I will sell this ABC losing stock only when I get my capital back. I don’t mind holding it for the long run.”

Safal Niveshak is 7 Years Old

Yep, it’s time to put on the big boy pants…Safal Niveshak completes seven years today. 🙂

I started with a simple idea in 2011, that of helping people become better at their stock market investment decisions. The idea was just that, and I had no clue how I would do it (I still have no clue about the future!)

However, a lot has happened in these seven quick years – and the tribe is reading 50,000 members – but as with any kid of this age, we’re just getting started.

Most of all, I want to thank you for “raising” this initiative to this point — it truly could not have happened without you, dear tribe member.

I know I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating – Thank you so much for reading, for commenting, for your interest and support, for helping this entire movement of creating smarter and independent stock market investors become greater and spread wider.

You are magnificent, and I am supremely grateful for your time and attention.

Just in case Safal Niveshak has touched your life, I would be happy and honoured to read your thoughts in the Comments section of this post.

Thanks again for being there!

With respect,
Vishal

Investing and the Art of Catching Falling Knives

It was the middle of 2013. I was reading the annual report of Ashok Leyland, the second largest commercial vehicle manufacturer in India after Tata Motors.

The company had reported a 3% decline in sales in the year ended March 2013, and profit had declined by 23%. The stock, as I checked then, had been punished and was trading at Rs 20 when I was reading its annual report. That was P/E of around 12 times, or an earnings yield (E/P) of 8%.

The company had done well in the previous years in terms of growth but was hurt by the overall decline in the commercial vehicle industry, and especially in its core business of medium and heavy-duty vehicles.

Anyways, the stock looked enticing then, not just due to its low P/E, but also because of its absolute low stock price of just Rs 20.

The Paradox of Knowledge

Tourist: This is a dangerously steep road with a sharp bend. Why isn’t there a hazard sign for motorists to slow down?

Guide: We had a warning sign untill yesterday. But since accidents were rare, officials concluded that the spot isn’t that dangerous after all. So they removed the sign.

Tourist: Don’t you think the rarity of the accidents was precisely because of the warning sign?

Guide: Ugh..

Amused at the stupidity of the officials? That’s because it’s easy to spot the cause and effect relationship between ‘presence of warning sign’ and ‘frequency of accidents.’ You can test the hypothesis. Remove the warning sign and if too many cars start plunging down the valley, there we have it – a clear correlation between an action and its consequences.

High Quality Vs Low Price

If you pay peanuts, you get monkeys. ~ Old adage

If you remember the stock market crash of 2008, you also remember that it spared almost no stock. Companies, even the well-managed ones, lost half or more of their market capitalization in few months.

As an example, Pidilite (makers of Fevicol), which was one of those extremely well-managed businesses then, lost 55% between December 2007 (just before the crash started) and March 2009 (the bottom). Titan and HDFC Bank, two other stalwarts, lost 50% each. In short, the crash was like a bad dream for people even in these marquee stocks.

But for those who held on to their nerves, and to these stocks, the next decade was about to turn into a beautiful dream.

As an example, assume you were owning Pidilite near its peak in December 2007 and went into a deep sleep that continued till today (June 2018). Your return from the stock would have been around 1,000% (CAGR of 26%) over this decade!

How Much is Enough?

As I was talking with my daughter Kavya about the importance of making a living doing work she loves, and saving and investing well, she asked a question that trumped me. I was not prepared for it.

“How much is enough, Papa, to live a happy life?” she asked.

Kavya’s question reminded me of a recent post I did about my talk to a group of friends. The focus of my talk was on a few important questions I have tried to seek answers to at various stages of my life, and that have helped me tremendously in choosing a path that, when I look back at, I am glad I chose.

One of the questions that I talked about was – How much is enough?

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Feynman’s Hack and the Map of the Cat

Richard Feynman, a celebrated scientist and the winner of Nobel prize in Theoretical Physics, was infamous for barging into any classroom (unrelated to Physics) in his university. He would then ask questions and make his fellow professors uncomfortable.

One day Feynman decided to attend a Biology class. Being aware of Feynman’s history of mischief, the Biology professor posed a condition to discourage him. Feynman could attend the class provided he would do all the assignments and write research papers like everyone else attending that class. To the professor’s surprise, Feynman agreed.

Feynman’s first assignment required him to study the nervous system of cats. So he went to the librarian in the biology section and asked her if she could give him a map of the cat.

“A map of the cat, sir?” she asked, horrified. “You mean a zoological chart!”

The Most Important Question We Never Ask

A few years ago, the key executives of Disney summoned a study of their theme parks to figure out what kids found most absorbing.

Were they more enticed by Mickey and Minnie Mouse, or were they more in awe of Cinderella’s castle? Were they attracted more by the sweet-smelling snacks or colourful toys that were sold at the parks?

The study revealed that it wasn’t the Disney magic that captured the young children’s attention the most. Instead, it was their parents’ cell phones, especially when the parents were using them. And because the parents were always staring at their phones, the kids wanted to as well – even when they were surrounded by giant mice, spinning teacups, and the magic of pumpkin turning into a carriage.

Today, more of us are hooked to our devices, which in turn keep us hooked to work…and away from the more important things in life. An average American spends over two hours on his or her smartphone every day.

An average Indian smartphone user spends almost three hours every day on his or her device. We check them first thing in the morning, and often the last thing at night.

Now, what are the consequences of such an addiction towards cell phones?