Blog on Value Investing | Safal Niveshak

Alexa, How Can I Get Rich?

“Alexa, how can I get rich?” he asked staring at a speaker kept at a distance.

Nothing happened for a few seconds.

“Alexa! Alexa!” he shouted.

Nothing happened even then.

“Huh!” he blurted in frustration and went back to his playful ways.

This is a small conversation I heard of a 9-year old at our Camp Millionaire workshop in Mumbai on Sunday during a small break before we play musical chairs to explain kids the concept of demand and supply.

Well, the speaker on the other side of the intended conversation was not Alexa – virtual assistant developed by Amazon – but a plain one that operated on Bluetooth. But this 9-year old mistook it for one, and thus wanted to start a conversation to a get a quick response to his question. The question, however, sounded more like a command.

The Dagger of Debt

Archimedes — a Greek mathematician — was born in 287 BC in the seaport city of Syracuse, Sicily. Some consider him as the greatest mathematician of all time. Although he’s known for the discovery of Archimedes Principle, his often quoted for his famous saying —

Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I shall move the world.

While Archimedes did not invent the lever, his did extensive work on the usage of levers. Archimedes designed block-and-tackle pulley systems, allowing sailors to use the principle of leverage to lift objects that would otherwise have been too heavy to move.

A lever is a simple machine that amplifies an input force to provide a greater output force, which is said to provide leverage. There isn’t a single mechanical device in the world which doesn’t use the laws of the lever.

When people realized that leverage could magnify the effect of non-physical things too the first thing they tried it on was money. In the last few decades, the world of finance has taken Archimedes’ words literally.
[Read more…] about The Dagger of Debt

The Sixteen Silliest (and Most Dangerous) Things People Say About Stock Prices

The title of this post is inspired from Ch. 18 of Peter Lynch’s One Up on Wall Street, that reads – The Twelve Silliest (and Most Dangerous) Things People Say About Stock Prices.

For today, I have just added to and removed from Lynch’s list, and have illustrated the silliness using real-life examples of listed Indian stocks. None of what you see below portrays my view on any stock showcased in this post. These are purely examples, and that too from the benefit of hindsight. But they offer meaningful lessons.

Anyways, before you read ahead, please understand that I agree with what Morgan Housel wrote recently that people are not crazy in general. Just that they can…

…be misinformed. They can have incomplete information. They can be bad at math. They can be persuaded by rotten marketing. They can have no idea what they’re doing. They can misjudge the consequences of their actions.

I also agree with Charlie Munger who said that even smart people may have their ‘streaks of nuttiness’ that cause them to make occasional dumb remarks and decisions.

So, what follows below showcases just those moments of nuttiness and craziness that get a lot of people into problems in investing. I have experienced some of these moments myself, just that I have managed to survive to tell the tale. 🙂

Siddhartha’s Dilemma, Marcus Aurelius On Honest Men, And Bezos on Amazon

Here’s some stuff I am reading and thinking about this weekend…

Book I’m Reading – Siddhartha
Siddhartha is a beautiful novel by Hermann Hesse, first published in 1922 in Germany, that deals with the spiritual journey of self-discovery of a man named Siddhartha during the time of the Gautama Buddha.

The book follows this young man named Siddhartha on his journey to find the true meaning of life and peace. One passage that is particularly enlightening for me is when a ferryman, Vasudeva, the spiritual guide of Siddhartha, consoles him after the latter’s son (also Siddhartha) from a courtesan woman (Kamala) doesn’t seem to be interested in reciprocating well to his father’s love and advice, and seems like running away to a path of his own that looks dangerous to his father –

Fighting the Last War

Note: This post was originally published in the November 2017 issue of our premium newsletter – Value Investing Almanack (VIA). To read more such posts and other deep thoughts on value investing, business analysis and behavioral finance, click here to subscribe to VIA.

In Safal Niveshak’s Value Investing workshops, when we discuss the mental biases, we show the following video to our participants.

I would suggest that you pause here and watch this video before reading further.

It’s a test of your awareness so don’t cheat 🙂 [Read more…] about Fighting the Last War

From Darkness Unto Light

I was recently reading a story on the classical Greek philosopher, Socrates, who was tried and executed in 399 BC. He was tried on two charges – corrupting the youth, and impiety (perceived lack of proper respect for something considered sacred).

The Death of Socrates, by Jacques-Louis David (1787)

Socrates had done no such thing. What he had done was educate the youth, teaching them to challenge arguments from authority and question what they believed to be true.

In the process, he frustrated and embarrassed many powerful people with his constant line of questioning, known today as the Socratic method.

In Praise of Mediocrity, Being Happy, And Learning How to Learn

Here’s some stuff I am reading, watching, and thinking about this weekend…

Book I’m Reading – The Art of Learning
One of the best books on the art of learning I’ve read is, well, The Art of Learning by Josh Waitzkin. I picked it up again this week, and it was as refreshing as the original read.

Josh is a champion in two distinct sports – chess and martial arts. He is an eight-time US national chess champion, thirteen-time Tai Chi Chuan push hands national champion, and two-time Tai Chi Chuan push hands world champion. In his book, Josh recounts his experiences and shares his insights and approaches on how you can learn and excel in your own life’s passion, using examples from his personal life. Through stories of martial arts wars and tense chess face-offs, Josh reveals the inner workings of his everyday methods, cultivating the most powerful techniques in any field, and mastering the psychology of peak performance.

How to Get Wealthy (Over Time)

Life is simple. Why do we make it so hard?

This is what Jon Jandai, a farmer from northeastern Thailand, asked the audience while delivering a TED speech in 2011.

He echoed what Confucius had said 2,500 years earlier, “Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated.”

While I recommend you watch Jon’s complete speech, the crux of what he says is that we don’t have to do what society tells us, we can have the life we want, and our choices determine if we get such a life.

Consider wealth creation. Spending less than you earn, i.e., saving money and investing it well over a long period of time is all you need to meet all your financial goals. Simple, right? But the question again is, like Jon asked, why do we make it so hard?

Look at this chart that talks about the three simple steps to get wealthy over time…

Could this get any simpler?

The Low Stress Way to Research Stocks

This issue of Outside the Box newsletter is authored by Jatin Khemani. Jatin talks about his equity research process and how he tries to balance the stress part of the equation that it involves. Over to him.

The Low Stress Way to Research Stocks
by Jatin Khemani

Six years ago, Prof. Sanjay Bakshi published a blog post where he suggested looking at returns from a very different perspective – Returns Per Unit of Stress.

One of the key points he made in the post was –

For proprietary investors (and maybe for all investors), stress should figure in one’s investment strategy, much more than it does, perhaps, even more than financial risk, because stress is a killer and high-stress situations – whether they carry high or low investment risk – will always carry a high risk to one’s health. In fact, one can now measure how many years of one’s life is cut short by being exposed to a high-stress life.

In this post, I take that idea further with my own experiences of being a full-time value investor over the better part of this decade.

Exploration Vs Exploitation

In his 2010 letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett tells a joke —

Customer: Thanks for putting me in XYZ stock at 5. I hear it’s up to 18.
Broker: Yes, and that’s just the beginning. In fact, the company is doing so well now, that it’s an even better buy at 18 than it was when you made your purchase.
Customer: Damn, I knew I should have waited.

Reading this joke the first time, I laughed at broker’s convoluted argument and the stupidity of the customer. How can a stock be better buy at 18 than it was at 5?
[Read more…] about Exploration Vs Exploitation