Blog on Value Investing | Safal Niveshak

Investing and the Art of Metaphorical Thinking

My momma always said, “Life is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get.” Mama always had a way of explaining things so I could understand them. ~ Forrest Gump

About a century ago, when the first automobile was introduced on the roads, most people referred to it as “horseless carriages”. Not only that, when the first set of cars came out, people called them “iron horses.”

Amusing, right? How limited people’s imagination was!

But today when the first lot of autonomous vehicles are getting ready for the roads, most people like to call them driverless cars. I am sure our future generation will be amused at our choice of words.

“Driverless? What driverless?” They would probably chuckle at the unimaginative terminology of their previous generation.

But that’s how a human mind works. The seeds of most revolutionary ideas are sown in those moments of unimaginative thoughts, like horseless carriages and driverless cars.

Driverless cars are as complicated and unbelievable to us as horseless carriages were to our great grandparents. And for a human mind, the best way to learn a complex idea is to find it living inside something else it already understands.

Safal Niveshak Stream – November 19, 2016

Note to Readers: In Stream, we suggest worthwhile reading material on a variety of topics, not all of which are directly related to investing. Some of the articles require you to be paid subscriber of those sites. However, it is often possible to read such articles by going to Google News and searching for the article’s title.

Some nice stuff we are reading, watching, and observing at the start of this weekend…

Life/Learning

(970 words / 4 minutes read) Nilanjana Roy discusses the concept of being a “time-millionaire”, a measure of how much person has control over his or her time. It’s not so straightforward to draw an analogy between time and money in the bank. However, the importance of having control of one’s time cannot be emphasized enough when it comes to understanding human happiness…

The American writer and blogger Mason Currey tracked the daily routines of 161 highly creative people, from Twyla Tharp and Agatha Christie to Matisse and Benjamin Franklin, in Daily Rituals: How Artists Work. Despite wide variations in working styles and habits, some patterns emerge. The brightest humans find work satisfying in itself, continuing to be productive long after they’ve achieved financial stability; they tend to work for a few hours every day, with the odd marathon session.

The most happily successful people you might imagine — Warren Buffett, for example — have the knack of enjoying what they do for work, and take time off to play bridge, learn the ukulele, or whatever. Although Currey didn’t explicitly say this, it also becomes clear that highly creative people exercise iron control over their time — and enjoy spending time, perhaps as much as we’re conditioned to think of enjoying spending wealth.

[Read more…] about Safal Niveshak Stream – November 19, 2016

Latticework of Mental Models: Porter’s Five Forces Analysis

Peter Lynch, who successfully ran Fidelity’s Magellan mutual fund for more than a decade, has often mentioned that investors are well advised to buy a business that’s so good that an idiot can run it because sooner or later an idiot will run it. That’s Lynch’s trademark style of saying that some businesses have structural advantages.

The easiest example that comes to mind is when Vijay Mallya ran two different kinds of businesses i.e the liquor business and the airline business. The alcohol business has great economics and aviation industry is known for its horrible economics. It didn’t matter how skillful Mallya was (or wasn’t). The outcome of the events in these two cases proves Lynch’s point.

So how do you find businesses which have a structural advantage? The search should begin by evaluating the industry. If one can answer following questions then he or she can get deeper insights about the industry.

Is this a good industry to look for quality businesses?
Is this is a mediocre industry, but are there companies which are exceptionally good performers?
What are the growth drivers for the industry?
What are the challenges?
What factors might influence how the industry might do in the future?
Who are the dominant players? Why are they dominant?

Of course, one needs to read a lot about the industry and the companies operating in it to answer above questions. But there’s is smarter approach to get quick insights on the competitive nature of any industry. And that brings us to a very important mental model – Porter’s Five Forces Analysis. [Read more…] about Latticework of Mental Models: Porter’s Five Forces Analysis

Safal Niveshak Stream – November 12, 2016

Some nice stuff we are reading, watching, and observing at the start of this weekend…

Life/Learning

(1250 words / 6 minutes read) The ability to expand your mind and strive for lifelong learning is more critical to your success than you think. Don’t give up on lifelong learning. Ever. Research shows that it pays beyond the skills you acquire. More than ever before, a challenged, stimulated brain may well be the key to a vibrant later life. There are a few skills that are hard to learn but pay off for the rest of your life. Like the skill of adaptability…

We live in ever-changing world which is unlikely to ever slow down. So, what mattered yesterday (e.g. skill, knowledge, social circle, etc.) very much so might not be worth a dime tomorrow. Change used to be slow and incremental: now it is rapid, radical and unpredictable.

Adaptability enables us to dwell on new circumstances and stay on top of the situation. Of course, this skill is best when combined with insight, giving us fresh perspective before the change itself. Growth depends on how adaptable you are. To stay relevant, most companies will need people who can change with time.

[Read more…] about Safal Niveshak Stream – November 12, 2016

Safal Niveshak Stream – November 9, 2016

Some nice stuff we are reading, watching, and observing during the middle of this week…

Investing/Stock Market

(1700 words/7 minutes read): It’s said that there’s very little we can learn from successes for studying successful people is fraught with survivorship bias. However, one shouldn’t outrightly reject the idea of looking at methods of successful because it does have some value. John Huber in his latest post on the competitive advantage of an owner-operator writes –

…the risk of succumbing to survivorship bias is a risk worth taking. I’d rather risk that bias in exchange for the reward of potentially learning something useful from these success stories…They key is trying to reverse engineer their success while simultaneously being aware of the inherent bias can occur when analyzing these situations…. So it’s good to be aware of bias (hindsight, survivorship, etc…), but it’s not worth letting those biases restrict you from trying to learn why something or someone became so successful.
(3 minutes watch): Here’s the next episode of Latticework Video Series. In this video we explain a very important mental model from the field of Statistics, called Mean Reversion, and what investing lessons one can draw from this big idea. Click here to watch the video. [Read more…] about Safal Niveshak Stream – November 9, 2016

Don’t Dump Your Stocks On Trump

Anshul wrote about the mental model of Antifragility some time back. It is a term coined by Nassim Taleb, and he defines it as being the opposite of fragility. So, things that benefit from shocks are antifragile. They thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, obstacles, disorder, unexpected events, change, and stressors.

An example of something that’s antifragile is Hydra, a serpent-like creature from Greek mythology that grew two new heads every time you cut one off. In Indian mythology, there is a similar character called Raktavija, a demon who had the magic boon that every drop of blood shed from his body gave rise to another Raktavija (literally the blood borne).

In this context, one thing or character that looks highly antifragile in today’s world is…hold your breath…Donald Trump. 🙂

This US presidential candidate has received massive criticism – and for obvious reasons – ever since he entered the field. But note this, the more he has been criticized for his past deeds and present words, the more robust his base has become. In fact, despite whatever the world thinks of the character of Donald Trump, this guy is on the verge of becoming the world’s most powerful man.

Latticework of Mental Models: Ludic Fallacy

On October 23, 2010, Francis Crippen, an American national, drowned while swimming in the sea near the shores of United Arab Emirates. He was only 26 years old.

Francis’ story shouldn’t strike you as very unusual. Thousands die every year because of drowning. In fact, your best guess would be that it’s such a non-event that it wouldn’t have found even a single mention in any of the prominent newspapers. However, what I haven’t told you about Francis is that he was no ordinary swimmer.

All three of Crippen’s sisters were competitive swimmers. Being inspired by his sister Maddy, Crippen started swimming at the age of six. Maddy was a 2000 Olympian in the 400 individual medley. Crippen’s other sister Claire was an Olympic Trials qualifier. Teresa Crippen, Fran’s third sister was a member of U.S. national swimming team. Francis himself was a six-time US National Champion and won several international medals.

This is the account of the events that followed on that fateful day.

Value Investor Interview: Rohit Chauhan

Note: This interview was originally published in the October 2016 issue of our premium newsletter – Value Investing Almanack (VIA). To read more such interviews and other deep thoughts on value investing, business analysis and behavioral finance, click here to subscribe to VIA.

I recently interviewed Rohit Chauhan for our premium newsletter, Value Investing Almanack.

Rohit Chauhan is an Engineer / MBA with 20+ years of experience, working in different functions in large corporations in India and abroad. Rohit was introduced to the value investing philosophy in the mid 90s and has since then followed it in managing money for himself and others who have entrusted their capital to him.

Rohit has been writing on the topic of investing for the last 11 years through his blog.

In his interview with Safal Niveshak, Rohit shares his wide investment experience and how small investors can practice sensible investment decision making.

My Multibagger Diwali Idea

Stop right here if you are looking for a stock idea from me, because most of my multibagger ideas are outside the stock market. 😉

But if you are still reading this, you may be interested to know the multibagger Diwali idea I am going to share. Don’t you?

Well, it’s festival time and I won’t waste much of yours.

My multibagger idea for this Diwali is to start a chain of gifting books that inspire.

I am starting with gifting one book that has inspired me to one person I know. I expect that person to then pay it forward by gifting one book to one of his or her friends, and the chain continues…till someone does not want to gift the book. 🙂

You don’t have to wait for someone to send you a book before you can begin.

Mahatma Gandhi said, “Be the change you want to see in this world.” So today I urge you to start the chain you want to be a part of. Anyone reading this can start his or her own chain. Trust me, you can’t even imagine how far the ripple effects of your small act can reach.

Pay It Forward

Lily Hardy Hammond wrote, “You don’t pay love back; you pay it forward.”

Ralph Waldo Emerson, in his 1841 essay titled Compensation, wrote, “In the order of nature we cannot render benefits to those from whom we receive them, or only seldom. But the benefit we receive must be rendered again, line for line, deed for deed, cent for cent, to somebody.”

Same is with knowledge. The only way you can pay back for the knowledge you have received is to pay it forward. Become a funnel, says Prof. Sanjay Bakshi, not a sponge.

One way to do that is to teach someone what you have learned. The other is to simply gift a good book.

But then, how does gifting a book make for a multibagger idea?

Well, knowledge, as you would have heard Warren Buffett say a lot of times, builds like compound interest. And because knowledge builds like compound interest, it gives you an exponential return. And what causes an exponential return makes for a multibagger over time.

Now, when you get a book as a gift, and you read it, it adds to your knowledge. And when you pay it forward by gifting a book to someone else and that person reads it, it adds to his/her knowledge. Over time, as a society, we get more knowledgeable and hopefully wiser. And that’s the idea of starting this chain.

So this Diwali, read a book…gift a book…and spread the light of wisdom all around you.

Anshul and I wish you a very happy Diwali and prosperous New Year.

P.S.: To ensure that this movement benefits maximum number of people, gift the book to someone who isn’t part of this already. So Anshul and I, by default, shouldn’t be in your chain.

Note: If you were to buy your books for gifting by clicking on the image below (or through this link), Amazon would pay me a small commission. The books won’t cost you any extra. And then I will give away 100% of the commission for the betterment of the under-privileged.

Safal Niveshak Stream – October 26, 2016

Some nice stuff we are reading, watching, and observing during the middle of this week…

Life/Learning

(2100 words/9 minutes read): Do you know the three important life skills nobody ever taught you? Please don’t take it personally, be open to changing your long and dearly held beliefs and the most important one – get comfortable with uncertainty…

When something tragic happens and you become horribly hurt, as much as your pain has you absolutely convinced that this must be about you, remember that hardship is part of choosing to live, that the tragedy of death is what gives meaning to life, and that pain has no prejudice — it afflicts us all. Deserving or not deserving isn’t part of the equation.

When you decide to change careers, there’s no one there telling you which career is right for you. When you decide to commit to someone, there’s no one telling you this relationship is going to make you happy. When you decide to start a business or move to a new country or eat waffles instead of pancakes for breakfast, there’s no way of knowing — for certain — if what you’re doing is “right” or not.

Developing the ability to simply do things for no other reason than curiosity or interest or hell, even boredom — the ability to do things with no expectation for result or accolade or productivity or fanfare — will train you to better make these big ambiguous life decisions. It will train you to simply start on something without knowing where in the hell it’s going.

[Read more…] about Safal Niveshak Stream – October 26, 2016