Blog on Value Investing | Safal Niveshak

Latticework of Mental Models: Hawthorne Effect

The Hawthorne plant of the Western Electric Company in Cicero, Illinois, figured out, albeit accidentally that increasing lighting in the plant made workers more productive. Then someone pointed out a confusing detail. Productivity also improved when they dimmed the lighting. In fact, making any change at all seemed to result in increased productivity. That was a surprising finding.

It turned out that the workers seemed to be responding more to the attention they were receiving from management than to any physical change in their environment. With each change, the workers suspected (consciously or unconsciously) they were being observed and therefore worked harder.

This phenomenon came to be known as the Hawthorne Effect. It states that the very fact that people are under study, observation or investigation can have an effect on them and the results.

An Advice to CEOs: Plain English, Please

In August 1998, the US stock market regulator, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released a book called A Plain English Handbook.

You may wonder, “What business does a stock market regulator has to focus on plain English?”

The SEC released this handbook to show corporate managers, especially CEOs, how they could use well-established techniques for writing in plain English to create clearer and more informative disclosure documents like annual reports, while meeting all legal requirements.

The preface of the handbook was written by none other than Warren Buffett – the man who writes the world’s best shareholders letters – and this is what he wrote –

For more than forty years, I’ve studied the documents that public companies file. Too often, I’ve been unable to decipher just what is being said or, worse yet, had to conclude that nothing was being said.

[Read more…] about An Advice to CEOs: Plain English, Please

Investing and Fear of Missing Out

We conducted our Value Investing Workshop in Ahmedabad yesterday, and here are the tribe members…

Let’s get to today’s post…

“You know I saved 50 rupees today,” declares the husband to his wife as he enters the house in the evening.

“And how did you do that?” the surprised wife asks.

“I missed the bus and ran behind it all the way from office to home.” The air of pride was palpable in the husband’s voice.

“Well, then you should have chased a taxi and saved 200 bucks!” the wife said. And her logic was spot on, wasn’t it?

Here is question for you – how much do you think the poor husband saved? Rs 50 or Rs 200? Extending the wife’s argument, the guy could have chased a Limousine and saved Rs 2,000. Do you see the absurdity of the logic?

The Wisdom of Intelligent Investors (Special E-Book)

If the history of stock market is anything to go by, investors often make decisions that can undermine their ability to build long-term wealth. As such, it is often very valuable to look back in history and study closely the principles that have guided the investment decisions of some of the best minds and practitioners in this field through both good and bad markets.

By studying these experienced investors, we can learn many important lessons about the mindset required to build long-term wealth.

With this goal in mind, here is a special e-book that aims to offer the wisdom of some of the best investment minds of current times from India and abroad.

Investing Lessons I Learned from Tic-Tac-Toe

If you have sat in a classroom dragging your feet through an uninteresting lecture, you must be familiar with the game of tic-tac-toe, also known as noughts and crosses or Xs and Os.

The game’s simplicity lies in fact that it takes not more than a minute to learn it and it can be played anywhere. All you need is a piece of paper, a pen/pencil and some time to kill. Like chess, it needs two players, but some people don’t mind it playing alone by taking turns and becoming their own opponent.

When I was a kid I even had a water bottle which had the grid of tic-tac-toe built on one of its side and plastic pieces (crosses and circles) to play.

In case, you’ve forgotten how the game is played, here’s a crash course to refresh your memory. A 3X3 grid is drawn on the paper and each player chooses their mark i.e. X or 0. The player who succeeds in placing three of their marks in a horizontal, vertical, or diagonal row wins the game.

Latticework of Mental Models: Asymmetric Information

Exactly eleven days after buying my windows smartphone, I realized my mistake. Unfortunately, the ten day return window (no pun intended) had already closed.

So I listed it for sale on couple of online used item marketplaces (OLX, Quikr etc.). To my utter surprise no one was willing to pay more than 70 percent of the original cost for my brand new phone. Was my phone model so bad?

But I found that almost all the other similar deals for used electronic gadgets (which were only few days old) were being sold at significant discount to MRP. I was quite sure that many of those sellers, like me, were selling because they didn’t like the product, and not because there was some defect in it.

Then why was the used-item-market heavily discounting the price for an item which was almost brand new? I also noticed that there wasn’t much difference between the price of a 1 year old phone a 1 month old phone of the exactly same brand and model.

Another observation – the number of listings for relatively newer items were very few as compared to the ones for 1-2 years old items. Why so?

Happy Birthday, Mr. Warren Buffett

Me: Happy birthday, Mr. Warren Buffett.

Warren Buffett (WB): Thanks Vishal!

Me: So how does it feel at 86?

WB: Oh, I’m feeling younger than ever. I continue to do what I have loved doing all my life. I continue to eat like a six-year old. I continue to be friends with people I have been friends with for decades now. And that makes me feel younger than ever.

Me: You truly know the secret of a long and happy life, don’t you?

Latticework of Mental Models: The Halo Effect

Complexity is the indispensable thread in the fabric of world of business today. As a result, in spite of all the secrets formulas and all the self-proclaimed thought leadership, success in business is as elusive as ever. Unlike hard sciences there are no immutable laws in management because managing business isn’t a science.

Rajiv Bajaj, Managing Director of Bajaj auto, said this in one of his talks –

I joined the company [Bajaj Auto] twenty years back. In my college I was trained to think ‘Just in Time’ because it was supposed to be one solution for all the problems. And then somebody said, Just in Time is not enough. They said there must be Kaizen, World class manufacturing, Toyota production system, Kawasaki system, automation and robotics. Then they said you must also know CAD, CAM, simultaneous engineering, re-engineering, six-sigma, TQM, and you must wear six hats, follow seven habits, look for blue oceans, be a bit of a maverick and indulge in management by walking around. Every time I learnt something new, I found myself back at the starting point. There was always the new book on the shelf, and there was always the new consultant on the seminar circuit. And these guys would do anything to keep themselves in demand and keep all of us confused. So I decided to ignore all of these.

Rajiv Bajaj turned around Bajaj Auto from a loss making company in the year 2000 to the most profitable auto company in world and it’s pretty clear from his talk that he didn’t do it just by blindly listening to those management experts and celebrity CEOs who claim to have the next new thing.

Annual Report Review: Bajaj Auto

Here is my review of the FY16 annual report of India’s leading two-wheeler company, Bajaj Auto.

Click here to download the PDF review (4 MB file), or read it in the panel below.

Let me know your thoughts and questions on this review in the Comments section of this post, plus any additional thoughts from your own review of Bajaj Auto’s FY16 annual report. Also share any suggestion(s) you may have to make future reviews better and easier for your understanding.

Click here to read past annual report reviews

Statutory Warning: This is NOT an investment advice to buy or sell shares. Please make your own decision, as blindly acting on anyone else’s research and opinions can be injurious to your wealth. I own the stock, and thus my analysis is biased, and may be wrong. I have been wrong many times in the past. I am a registered Research Analyst as per SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 (Registration No. INH000000578).

Latticework of Mental Models: The Zero Price Effect

Would you buy something if it were discounted from Rs. 500 to Rs. 200? May be.

What if it was discounted from Rs. 500 to Rs. 10? Possibly.

How about if it were discounted to zero? Absolutely!

Getting something for free feels good. Isn’t it?

But don’t get too excited. Although the ‘cost of free’ is zero, it’s also a source of irrational behaviour. Remember those pile of free key chains, free pencils and notepads lying at some corner of your house? Well that pile may be harmless but there are other situations where this irrational affinity for FREE stuff can cause us to make bad decisions. The Zero Price Effect says that we often pay too much when we pay nothing.

I regularly give in to this zero price effect in my day to day decisions. Amazon offers zero shipping charges if I make a minimum purchase of Rs. 499. Every time I order a book which costs less than 499, I end up buying another book (which I don’t plan to read) just to avail the free shipping offer. I just can’t let go off the free offer.

So what explains our unusual love for FREE! stuff?