Blog on Value Investing | Safal Niveshak

Latticework of Mental Models: Reciprocation Tendency

Few months back I was watching a bollywood action crime drama movie called ‘Badlapur’. The movie portrays the human emotion of ‘revenge’ and how far someone can go to seek it. The protagonist in the movie patiently waits 15 years to avenge his wife’s and son’s murder.

The urge to take revenge can manifest in smallest of things. Someone cuts you off in the traffic and the first thought that comes to mind is to get back at him and settle the account. In fact people getting shot dead in road rage incidents isn’t uncommon these days.

So what could be the reason for this strong force, a need to reciprocate the wrongdoing, in human behaviour?

Is it just the anger? Or is it the resentment for receiving an unfair treatment?

Let’s use the inversion mental model and turn the question around. If humans can have such a strong need to reciprocate to an injustice, can they also have a similar need to reciprocate a favour?

To answer that question in a truly multidisciplinary way, let’s explore the field of Psychology.

Robert Cialdini, a professor of Psychology and author of wildly popular book Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion, has done extensive research on human behaviour. One of the human biases that he talks about in his book is Reciprocity Bias. According to Cialdini – the rule for reciprocation is one of the most potent weapons of influence around us.

Results: Value Investing Contest 2015

The Safal Niveshak Value Investing Contest 2015 We recently concluded the second edition of Safal Niveshak’s Value Investing Contest. Today, I feel happy to announce the winners of the same.

We received 24 entries in total and found it extremely tough to rank them in terms of quality and simplicity of analysis. Thus, we have chosen four winners for the first three positions.

While our choice of winners does not devalue the quality of analyses sent by others, it’s just that we had to pick the best very few, and here they are –

1st Prize

Ankit Kanodia – Mahindra Holidays

2nd Prize

Vikas Kasturi – NESCO
Depesh Kashyap – MT Educare

3rd Prize

Samar Srivastava – Poddar Developers

Here are the prizes winners have won –

1st Prize – Books of choice, worth Rs 5,000/-
2nd Prize – Books of choice, worth Rs 2,500/- each
3rd Prize – Books of choice, worth Rs 2,000/-

Congratulations to all the winners, and thanks to all who participated!

Click here to view/download all the submitted entries.

Latticework of Mental Models: Twaddle Tendency

Open any financial news channel and often you can find a so called expert being interviewed on his opinion about the direction of the stock market and health of the economy.

On being asked such macro questions, the answer usually goes something like this –

Maybe the gentleman above has a point. But I just don’t see it. Do you? All I see is that his verbal diarrhea was completely useless.

In most cases, the right (and honest) answer is – I don’t know.

But how can experts not know? They are interviewed because they’re supposed to know about everything. And even if they don’t know, what is Google for? All the facts and figures are few key strokes away, so it’s a sin to not have an opinion about everything, especially if you’re considered an expert and probably being compensated by pay per word.

Life 2.0: Recycling Wealth

People generally go about philanthropy the wrong way. Like money, the social impact of your efforts has a tendency to compound provided you get involved early.

Philanthropy is harder than business. You are tackling important problems that people with intellect and money have tried in the past and had a tough time solving. ~ Warren Buffett

Few years back, one of my friends asked me if I would donate money for charity. My smart-alec answer to him was, “Charity begins at home. So I choose to donate myself first.”

And then, to further flaunt my deep thinking abilities, I backed it up with another logic.

“In case of emergency, recommends the flight safety announcements, you should wear the oxygen mask yourself first and then help the other person. So I believe that I should first get rich myself and then only think about charity and giving back to society.”

I thought it wasn’t a selfish attitude. It was a perfectly rational answer to anybody who wanted to exploit my guilt about not giving back to society.

“So how much money do you think you should have before you can call yourself rich?” asked my friend.

Of course I didn’t have any answer to that question, which made me wonder if I was just making up rational sounding excuses to avoid thinking about a difficult subject. Perhaps I was.
[Read more…] about Life 2.0: Recycling Wealth

Latticework of Mental Models: Status Quo Bias

Do you own a smartphone? Chances are that you’re reading this on a smartphone or a tablet.

One of the most interesting thing about these smartphones is that they allows you to customize everything – data usage, app synchronisation, phone encryption, even how loud you want the camera shutter to sound.

How many of these customization settings have you used? In my case – almost none!

Although I’m not technically challenged, but do suffer from, just like most of the other human beings, a cognitive bias.

Earlier in the latticework series, I wrote about Do Something Bias. It’s a cognitive bias where people get an urge to take action or make unnecessary decisions when ‘not doing anything’ is required.

Now let’s turn the table, and talk about a bias which is exactly opposite of Do Something Bias. It’s called Status Quo Bias. The tendency of people where they don’t do anything and continue to maintain the current state of affairs.

If we could boil down this cognitive bias to a more fundamental body of knowledge, it would be Physics. I am sure you must have heard of Newton’s laws of motion. The first law of motion states –

An object either remains at rest or continues to move at a constant velocity, unless acted upon by an external force.

This characteristic, called inertia, is exhibited by all physical bodies. And when it comes to human behaviour, this tendency manifests in the form of Status Quo Bias.

I Might Be Wrong

On the morning of the Battle of Waterloo in 1815, Napoleon Bonaparte smugly assured his generals – “I tell you Wellington is a bad general, the English are bad soldiers; we will settle this matter by lunchtime.”

Just before the Titanic was about to embark on its maiden journey in 1912, one passenger asked a ship’s agent for extra insurance on some valuables in her luggage. The agent replied, “Ridiculous. This boat’s unsinkable.”

Captain Smith himself was asked about the safety of the Titanic. He answered – “I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder. I cannot conceive of any vital disaster happening to this vessel. Modern shipbuilding has gone beyond that.”

[Read more…] about I Might Be Wrong

What to Read in Investing? Lesson from A 2,000-Year-Old Stoic Philosopher

I have lost count of how many investors have told me over the years that they never read anything apart from newspapers. They’re too busy to read books or even long articles, they say.

In fact, most people I’ve encountered read very little (despite the fact that, as per a study, an average Indian reads the most in the world, at around 90 minutes per day, as compared to 68 minutes of an average Chinese and 48 minutes of an average American).

Anyways, when people ask me what they should read to improve their investment thinking and/or to stay informed on the stock market, businesses, etc. and/or to just become better thinkers and decision makers, the first thing I ask them to do is to avoid reading newspapers (the law of inversion, you see, of what not do).

Latticework of Mental Models: The Power Law

Do you know how much property damage and loss of lives is caused by earthquakes every year?

No idea? Consider this – An earthquake in Japan in 2011 caused an estimated property loss of US$ 235 billion. The deadliest earthquake in recorded history (in terms of loss of lives) occurred in Shaanxi (China) killing more than 800,000 people.

According to one study, annual average losses from earthquakes range from US$ 1.3 to 5.7 billion. That’s loss per year because of all the earthquakes. This is quite huge, considering that it’s caused by an event which we have no control over.

These statistics show that when mother nature’s fury is unleashed, even the modern society with all its technology and resources, finds itself helpless.

Now another question. What do you think is the average loss caused by an earthquake, in terms of dollars per earthquake? Let’s do a quick back of the envelope calculation. So yearly loss of US$ 5.7 billion divided by number of earthquakes per year. How much would that be? Take a guess.

Probably that number would be couple of million dollars per earthquake. Right?

It’s actually little over US$ 10,000. That’s it! How come?

Maximizing Shareholder Value: A Dumb Idea?

Sometime in 2007, I called the Investor Relations head of a leading Indian power company. “I request for a meeting with your CFO,” I said.

“Where are you calling from?” she asked back.

“I work for an independent research company working for retail investors, and we are looking to initiate coverage on your stock,” I replied. “I had some questions before writing the report and thus wanted to meet your CFO.”

“Are you writing a Buy or Sell report on our stock?” she asked.

“How can I tell you that now?” I said “I need to finish my research and only then will I make a judgement on whether the stock is a buy or a sell.”

“Wait, you are from a retail research organization, right? She asked. “Sorry, we do not have a policy to meet companies focused on retail investors. We only meet the institutional guys because they can help up increase our market cap, not the retail guys. We want to maximize shareholders’ wealth, you see.”

Safal Niveshak Value Investing Contest 2015

Here’s your chance to showcase your analysis skills to the Safal Niveshak tribe, and in the process win a prize if your entry gets chosen amongst the best.

Contest Rules

Write a 3,000 word (max.) report on one listed Indian company of your choice.
You may submit more than one report, but will be eligible for only one prize.
Deadline for report submission is 25th October 2015
Email your report in a Word file to vishal[at]safalniveshak[dot]com with the subject line as – “Value Investing Contest 2015 – Company Name”
The stock must have a market capitalization of more than Rs 100 crore
The idea must be well researched (by you). Your analysis must cover these areas:
- Company history and business
- Moat analysis (if moat exists)
- Competition
- Financial strength (provide data/charts to support your analysis)
- Management quality (have they been good or bad allocators of capital)
- Risks (what can go wrong)
- Valuation (no price targets required; challenge the market’s current valuation instead of calculating your own)
The report would be exclusive to Safal Niveshak. But you can post an abstract at other places and link to the full report on Safal Niveshak.