Blog on Value Investing | Safal Niveshak

What to Read in Investing? Lesson from A 2,000-Year-Old Stoic Philosopher

I have lost count of how many investors have told me over the years that they never read anything apart from newspapers. They’re too busy to read books or even long articles, they say.

In fact, most people I’ve encountered read very little (despite the fact that, as per a study, an average Indian reads the most in the world, at around 90 minutes per day, as compared to 68 minutes of an average Chinese and 48 minutes of an average American).

Anyways, when people ask me what they should read to improve their investment thinking and/or to stay informed on the stock market, businesses, etc. and/or to just become better thinkers and decision makers, the first thing I ask them to do is to avoid reading newspapers (the law of inversion, you see, of what not do).

Latticework of Mental Models: The Power Law

Do you know how much property damage and loss of lives is caused by earthquakes every year?

No idea? Consider this – An earthquake in Japan in 2011 caused an estimated property loss of US$ 235 billion. The deadliest earthquake in recorded history (in terms of loss of lives) occurred in Shaanxi (China) killing more than 800,000 people.

According to one study, annual average losses from earthquakes range from US$ 1.3 to 5.7 billion. That’s loss per year because of all the earthquakes. This is quite huge, considering that it’s caused by an event which we have no control over.

These statistics show that when mother nature’s fury is unleashed, even the modern society with all its technology and resources, finds itself helpless.

Now another question. What do you think is the average loss caused by an earthquake, in terms of dollars per earthquake? Let’s do a quick back of the envelope calculation. So yearly loss of US$ 5.7 billion divided by number of earthquakes per year. How much would that be? Take a guess.

Probably that number would be couple of million dollars per earthquake. Right?

It’s actually little over US$ 10,000. That’s it! How come?

Maximizing Shareholder Value: A Dumb Idea?

Sometime in 2007, I called the Investor Relations head of a leading Indian power company. “I request for a meeting with your CFO,” I said.

“Where are you calling from?” she asked back.

“I work for an independent research company working for retail investors, and we are looking to initiate coverage on your stock,” I replied. “I had some questions before writing the report and thus wanted to meet your CFO.”

“Are you writing a Buy or Sell report on our stock?” she asked.

“How can I tell you that now?” I said “I need to finish my research and only then will I make a judgement on whether the stock is a buy or a sell.”

“Wait, you are from a retail research organization, right? She asked. “Sorry, we do not have a policy to meet companies focused on retail investors. We only meet the institutional guys because they can help up increase our market cap, not the retail guys. We want to maximize shareholders’ wealth, you see.”

Safal Niveshak Value Investing Contest 2015

Here’s your chance to showcase your analysis skills to the Safal Niveshak tribe, and in the process win a prize if your entry gets chosen amongst the best.

Contest Rules

Write a 3,000 word (max.) report on one listed Indian company of your choice.
You may submit more than one report, but will be eligible for only one prize.
Deadline for report submission is 25th October 2015
Email your report in a Word file to vishal[at]safalniveshak[dot]com with the subject line as – “Value Investing Contest 2015 – Company Name”
The stock must have a market capitalization of more than Rs 100 crore
The idea must be well researched (by you). Your analysis must cover these areas:
- Company history and business
- Moat analysis (if moat exists)
- Competition
- Financial strength (provide data/charts to support your analysis)
- Management quality (have they been good or bad allocators of capital)
- Risks (what can go wrong)
- Valuation (no price targets required; challenge the market’s current valuation instead of calculating your own)
The report would be exclusive to Safal Niveshak. But you can post an abstract at other places and link to the full report on Safal Niveshak.

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5 Big Questions on IPOs…Answered

The IPO season is back with a bang. First, the company behind the Cafe Coffee Day chain Coffee Day Enterprises will hit the markets today with its IPO to raise around Rs 1,150 crore or US$ 176 million. Then, later this month, India’s only profitable airline, Indigo, will open subscriptions to its Rs 2,500 crore or US$ 400 million IPO.

These are not anywhere close to the biggest of big IPOs India has seen, so rest assured that we are not at the peak of a bull market. 🙂

But like all IPOs in the past, it’s very important for you as an investor to be careful and not give in to the hype and excitement that surrounds public issues. Towards this, here are my responses to the five key questions you may have about investing in IPOs. I also share below a template for analyzing an IPO document.

The Journey of Safal Niveshak

Taking a break from writing on investing, behaviour, and business, today I share with you the journey of Safal Niveshak over the past 4+ years.

This is a short presentation I gave at a recent meetup of value investors, and I thought I must share it with you too…for you have been my partner in this journey.

So if you want to know anything and everything about what Safal Niveshak is and what it stands for, you will find in this presentation (click here or read in the panel below).

It’s a long journey, but it’s worth it. And I thank you for being my fellow traveller.

Now, as we move ahead, I would love to have your thoughts on how this journey has been for you. Please click here to share your thoughts.

How to Live and Invest Without Failure

Early this year, a close friend of mine, Rajiv, had his eyes set on finishing the Mumbai half-marathon (approx. 21 km) in less than 180 minutes.

So, crossing the finish line in 160 minutes was something of a major triumph for him. He was genuinely happy.

One another friend, Sameer, ran the same distance and recorded the exact same time of 160 minutes. However, this guy wanted to cover the distance in 150 minutes or less. Consequently, he was shattered.

He described his experience as a massive failure and as a result, his mind and body language were both a reflection of his belief (the belief that he had failed).

Sameer could have labelled his run many things but he chose ‘failure’.

Latticework of Mental Models: Framing Effect

“Is it okay to smoke a cigarette while praying to God?” a young man asked his father, a religious man.

“Of course it’s bad. It’s a great sin and very disrespectful act,” the father replied. He was disturbed with his son’s atrocious question.

“But last time you told me that to get rid of my addiction I should start praying while smoking. Didn’t you say that?” It seemed to him that his father was contradicting himself.

“No my son! Don’t confuse smoking-while-praying with praying-while-smoking,” the father explained.

“But what’s the difference?” the son was perplexed.

“There is a difference. A huge difference. I don’t know what but my brain tells me that there is.”

Now before we get started on a debate about the validity of father’s argument, let me clarify that the reason I brought up this anecdote was to highlight an important mental bias which plays out in our affairs very subtly.

Life 2.0: Is Getting Rich Worth It?

Some of the greatest things, the greatest discoveries, have come about by serendipity. Let’s explore its magic here.

I recently wrote about the mental model of Inversion in Safal Niveshak’s Latticework series. ‘Inversion’ suggests that sometimes you stumble upon very useful insights by inverting the problem.

Now, what use is a mental model if you can’t implement it? So let’s use it, for the sake of personal amusement, to investigate one of the most popular problems in the world.

Yes I am talking about the conundrum of – “How to get rich.” The inherent assumption here is that everyone wants to be rich and they are just looking for the “how” part. Keeping that in mind, one of the ways to invert this question is to ask – “Is getting rich worth it?”

Before you decide to skip this article thinking that it’s another one of those “money can’t buy happiness” rant, just stick with me for few more lines and I promise that you won’t regret.

I consider this as an opportunity to wear my curiosity cap and look at the real and practical problems faced by super rich. Now given the fact that the author, yours truly, isn’t so rich (money wise), is it justified for him to comment on problems of rich? So in my defence all I have to say is that I never let my lack of first-hand experience with a topic stop me from speculating on it.

Unlike previous Life 2.0 articles, this post doesn’t aim to provide any ‘how to’ advice. My intention is to share with you a different perspective, the view from the other side of the fence where grass seems greener.
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Hope Is Not An Investing Strategy

“I hope the stock market rises again,” my friend Ravi told me as we met for dinner during the weekend.

“Why?” I asked.

“I have put in a lot of money over the last few months…that’s why!” he replied.

“Ravi, it’s good to be an optimist by nature,” I said, “But ironically, it doesn’t work that way in the stock market.”

“Why do you say so Vishal? Isn’t it a basic human nature to hope for the best?”

“Of course yes. In fact, I believe that hope is a component of a healthy state of mind, and opposite of negativity that we see all around. But then, when it comes to the stock market, hope is dangerous.”

“But why?”