Blog on Value Investing | Safal Niveshak

Latticework of Mental Models: Mean Reversion

This article is the fourth of this new weekly series called Latticework of Mental Models, which will be authored by my friend and partner in writing the Value Investing Almanack, Anshul Khare. Anshul will write on various mental models – big ideas from various disciplines – which can help you think more rationally while analyzing businesses and making your stock investment decisions.

There are certain days in everybody’s life which in spite of being ordinary remain etched in the memory for a long time. It was 15th of December. I distinctly remember it because I bought my car that day.

The ownership of new car brought with it an excitement to take care of it which included an urge to diligently track the car mileage. You know, boys with toys. At an average of 13 km/litre it was a satisfactory performance. However, after few weeks I started noticing that the mileage numbers would go down occasionally and then come back again to the normal.

There wasn’t any change in my driving style or driving routes. Except the source of fuel there was no other variable that could cause the variation in performance. So my hypothesis was that the quality of fuel was affecting my vehicle’s performance. To empirically validate my theory I decided to keep track of different fuel stations where I got the petrol from.

How to Find Great Businesses, the Peter Lynch Way

One of the first books I ask new investors to read is Peter Lynch’s One Up on Wall Street.

The easy-going and simplistic stock-picking style discussed in this book brought Lynch great success in his profession as a fund manager at the US mutual fund company, Fidelity, where he generated an average annual return of 29% during 1977 to 1990.

Lynch wasn’t just a great investor, he had a wonderful way of getting across the secrets of his success in everyday language, exemplified by this warning of the perils of putting money into businesses that you don’t understand.

Another of his catchphrases was to “invest in what you know” and he believed everyone could use this advice to spot successful companies.

In fact, he got many of his best ideas at home or when wandering around shopping malls, rather than by poring over company accounts.

Latticework of Mental Models: Storytelling

This article is the third of this new weekly series called Latticework of Mental Models, which will be authored by my friend and partner in writing the Value Investing Almanack, Anshul Khare. Anshul will write on various mental models – big ideas from various disciplines – which can help you think more rationally while analyzing businesses and making your stock investment decisions.

What if I told you that the DCF (discounted cash flow) analysis and the principle of time value of money was first discovered in 600 B.C.? And the person who discovered it was neither an economist nor a mathematician. He was a storyteller called Aesop.

“You must be kidding,” you might say. Well, let’s find out.

In my personal experience, one of the most effective ways to make a conversation (written or verbal) interesting is to tell a story capturing your idea. In fact, I can safely claim that whenever I hear or read something that starts with “let me tell you a story,” it gets me hooked for at least few minutes. I am sure your experience won’t differ too much from mine.

Even most of the holy texts in different religions contain lot of stories. Questions is, why is it so?

A Guide to Reading for Investors (Plus, What Prof. Sanjay Bakshi Reads)

Note: This article formed part of the April 2015 Special Report that I recently sent to subscribers of my premium newsletter Value Investing Almanack. If you wish to read similar premium posts in the future, I invite you subscribe to the Almanack. Click here to subscribe.

“I do not take a single newspaper, nor read one a month, and I feel myself infinitely happier for it. The man who reads nothing at all is better informed than the man who reads nothing but newspapers.” ~ Thomas Jefferson

Long time readers of Safal Niveshak blog and attendees to my investing workshops know my dislike for reading newspapers. The dislike is so deep that I’ve not had a newspaper subscription at my home for the past six years now, and neither do I consume news via electronic media. This also holds true of business television which I watch very occasionally and only when I want to get a hearty laugh and there’s nothing else that’s as funny on television at that time.

Now, one big reason I do not read newspapers is because I have a big problem with the fact that they decide for us what we should pay attention to and what we should ignore. It isn’t just the text of a news story that can mislead us; it’s also the choice of which stories get covered at all, and where they’re placed in the paper.

Life 2.0: Staying Active

I acknowledge how clichéd the title sounds. I mean who doesn’t know that being active is a good thing? But when I heard the following five words, it got my attention immediately – “Sitting is the new smoking.”

Whosoever came up with this line, understood the power of inversion.

In last seven years, I have tried four different gyms, two swimming pool memberships and started preparing for numerous marathons. Every time the initial motivation lasted only for few weeks and then life (career, family, friends, IPL) got in the way.

I am sure many of you have had the same experience. You make a plan and commit yourself to it but soon life’s randomness and uncertainties throw you off. The randomness of life, its uncertainties – I call it “the chaos monkey”.

The gym operators understand this and you would be surprised to know that they plan their capacity taking this into account. So if the gym can accommodate 50 people at a time, they would actually sign up 100 people because they know that 50% of them will just give up after some time.

I soon realized that the solution wasn’t to reduce or control the randomness of life but to come up with a system which works in spite of the uncertainty of our environment and to certain extent thrives on that uncertainty – a true anti-fragile approach. If you aren’t familiar with the concept of anti-fragility, I would strongly recommend Nassim Taleb’s book Antifragile.
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Latticework of Mental Models: Occam’s Razor

This article is the second of this new weekly series called Latticework of Mental Models, which will be authored by my friend and partner in writing the Value Investing Almanack, Anshul Khare. Anshul will write on various mental models – big ideas from various disciplines – which can help you think more rationally while analyzing businesses and making your stock investment decisions.

Have you ever wondered why Mark Zuckerberg (founder of Facebook) always wears the same grey t-shirt? Do you remember Steve Jobs’ black turtleneck that he wore for all his stage appearances?

These billionaires could afford anything in the world. Then what’s going on here? I’ll give you a moment to think about it and come back to it later in this post.

Last week, we delved into the characteristics of complex systems and discussed few ideas to protect ourselves from unintended consequences produced by complex adaptive systems.

However, just because we have discovered a tool to address a problem doesn’t mean that we should go on using it for every problem. Charlie Munger nailed it when he said –

To a man with hammer everything looks like a nail.

We don’t want to be that ‘man with hammer’. So what am I suggesting here?

Perhaps you have heard it numerous times before but let me just make you read it once more – “An ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure.”

How about dealing with a situation just by avoiding it?

Dear Jealousy

Dear Jealousy,

I ask for an apology in advance because you may not like what you will read in this letter below.

You see, we have lived together in peace for years now. But, off late, I have started feeling dizzy having you on my side. Please don’t feel bad because I will soon explain my reasons for what I’m feeling now with respect to our relationship.

I remember you as early as the age of five, when you clouded my mind as soon as I saw my richer cousins with remote-controlled cars, nicer clothes, and bigger houses.

You stayed with me even as I was passing through high school. Those years, you made me jealous of my friends who scored higher marks then me and thus got a greater appreciation from the girls in the class. Then, when I was in college, you held my hand tight as I saw other classmates who arrived in their own cars while I took rickety buses. When I saw them also having cell phones, I felt your hug even tighter.

There were also times I found myself jealous of people who had no conscience and were famous for that. You made me think that I should become just like them. Thank God I didn’t!

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Latticework of Mental Models: Complex Adaptive Systems

This article is the first of this new weekly series called ‘Latticework of Mental Models’, which will be authored by my friend and partner in writing the Value Investing Almanack, Anshul Khare. Anshul will write on various mental models – big ideas from various disciplines – which can help you think more rationally while analyzing businesses and making your stock investment decisions.

Let me share with you two very interesting case studies. The first one is set in the time of British India.

The British government was concerned about the number of venomous cobra snakes in Delhi. The government therefore offered a bounty for every dead cobra. Initially this was a successful strategy as large numbers of snakes were killed for the reward. Eventually, however, enterprising people began to breed cobras for the income. When the government became aware of this, the reward program was scrapped, causing the cobra breeders to set the now-worthless snakes free. As a result, the wild cobra population further increased. The apparent solution for the problem made the situation even worse. (Source – Wikipedia)

Now there is no way to validate the authenticity of above story but the second one is very recent and a true incident set again in the city of Delhi. It’s equally amusing.

Corporate Governance: How They Pay Themselves

The organizers of a tennis tournament needed money. They approached the CEO of a big company and asked him to sponsor the tournament.

“How much?” asked the CEO.

“One million,” said the organizer.

“That is too much money,” said the CEO.

“Not if you consider the fact that you personally can play one match, sit at the honorary stand next to a member of the presidential family and be the one that hands over the prize,” said the organizer.

“Where do I sign?” said the CEO.

That’s the power of incentives, you see. People do what they perceive as in their best interest and are biased by incentives.

Look at the brokerage business. Stock brokers have a strong incentive to get us to trade. They advise us what to buy and sell. Volume creates commissions. Investment bankers encourage overpriced acquisitions to generate fees. Investment bankers have every incentive to get initial public offerings (IPO) deals done, regardless of the company’s quality. Their compensation is tied to the revenues the deal brings in. Analysts are rewarded for helping sell the IPO. Brokers want to move the stock.

What did Groucho Marx say? “I made a killing on Wall Street a few years ago…I shot my broker.”

Similarly, in the medical field, some psychologists ensure themselves future income by telling their patients that another visit is required. And they don’t talk about the limits of their knowledge. Their careers are at stake. As American actor Walther Matthau said, “My doctor gave me six months to live. When I told him I couldn’t pay the bill, he gave me six more months.”
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Measuring the Moat – Part 1

“We like stocks that generate high returns on invested capital,” Warren Buffett told those in attendance at Berkshire’s 1995 annual meeting, “where there is a strong likelihood that it will continue to do so.”

“I look at long-term competitive advantage,” he later added, “and [whether] that’s something that’s enduring.”

According to Buffett, the economic world is divided into a small group of franchises and a much larger group of commodity businesses, most of which are not worth purchasing.

He defines a franchise as a company whose product or service (1) is needed or desired, (2) has no close substitute, and (3) is not regulated.

Individually and collectively, these create what Buffett calls a ‘moat’ – something that gives the company a clear advantage over others and protects it against incursions from the competition.