Blog on Value Investing | Safal Niveshak

Latticework of Mental Models: Storytelling

This article is the third of this new weekly series called Latticework of Mental Models, which will be authored by my friend and partner in writing the Value Investing Almanack, Anshul Khare. Anshul will write on various mental models – big ideas from various disciplines – which can help you think more rationally while analyzing businesses and making your stock investment decisions.

What if I told you that the DCF (discounted cash flow) analysis and the principle of time value of money was first discovered in 600 B.C.? And the person who discovered it was neither an economist nor a mathematician. He was a storyteller called Aesop.

“You must be kidding,” you might say. Well, let’s find out.

In my personal experience, one of the most effective ways to make a conversation (written or verbal) interesting is to tell a story capturing your idea. In fact, I can safely claim that whenever I hear or read something that starts with “let me tell you a story,” it gets me hooked for at least few minutes. I am sure your experience won’t differ too much from mine.

Even most of the holy texts in different religions contain lot of stories. Questions is, why is it so?

A Guide to Reading for Investors (Plus, What Prof. Sanjay Bakshi Reads)

Note: This article formed part of the April 2015 Special Report that I recently sent to subscribers of my premium newsletter Value Investing Almanack. If you wish to read similar premium posts in the future, I invite you subscribe to the Almanack. Click here to subscribe.

“I do not take a single newspaper, nor read one a month, and I feel myself infinitely happier for it. The man who reads nothing at all is better informed than the man who reads nothing but newspapers.” ~ Thomas Jefferson

Long time readers of Safal Niveshak blog and attendees to my investing workshops know my dislike for reading newspapers. The dislike is so deep that I’ve not had a newspaper subscription at my home for the past six years now, and neither do I consume news via electronic media. This also holds true of business television which I watch very occasionally and only when I want to get a hearty laugh and there’s nothing else that’s as funny on television at that time.

Now, one big reason I do not read newspapers is because I have a big problem with the fact that they decide for us what we should pay attention to and what we should ignore. It isn’t just the text of a news story that can mislead us; it’s also the choice of which stories get covered at all, and where they’re placed in the paper.

Life 2.0: Staying Active

I acknowledge how clichéd the title sounds. I mean who doesn’t know that being active is a good thing? But when I heard the following five words, it got my attention immediately – “Sitting is the new smoking.”

Whosoever came up with this line, understood the power of inversion.

In last seven years, I have tried four different gyms, two swimming pool memberships and started preparing for numerous marathons. Every time the initial motivation lasted only for few weeks and then life (career, family, friends, IPL) got in the way.

I am sure many of you have had the same experience. You make a plan and commit yourself to it but soon life’s randomness and uncertainties throw you off. The randomness of life, its uncertainties – I call it “the chaos monkey”.

The gym operators understand this and you would be surprised to know that they plan their capacity taking this into account. So if the gym can accommodate 50 people at a time, they would actually sign up 100 people because they know that 50% of them will just give up after some time.

I soon realized that the solution wasn’t to reduce or control the randomness of life but to come up with a system which works in spite of the uncertainty of our environment and to certain extent thrives on that uncertainty – a true anti-fragile approach. If you aren’t familiar with the concept of anti-fragility, I would strongly recommend Nassim Taleb’s book Antifragile.
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Latticework of Mental Models: Occam’s Razor

This article is the second of this new weekly series called Latticework of Mental Models, which will be authored by my friend and partner in writing the Value Investing Almanack, Anshul Khare. Anshul will write on various mental models – big ideas from various disciplines – which can help you think more rationally while analyzing businesses and making your stock investment decisions.

Have you ever wondered why Mark Zuckerberg (founder of Facebook) always wears the same grey t-shirt? Do you remember Steve Jobs’ black turtleneck that he wore for all his stage appearances?

These billionaires could afford anything in the world. Then what’s going on here? I’ll give you a moment to think about it and come back to it later in this post.

Last week, we delved into the characteristics of complex systems and discussed few ideas to protect ourselves from unintended consequences produced by complex adaptive systems.

However, just because we have discovered a tool to address a problem doesn’t mean that we should go on using it for every problem. Charlie Munger nailed it when he said –

To a man with hammer everything looks like a nail.

We don’t want to be that ‘man with hammer’. So what am I suggesting here?

Perhaps you have heard it numerous times before but let me just make you read it once more – “An ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure.”

How about dealing with a situation just by avoiding it?

Dear Jealousy

Dear Jealousy,

I ask for an apology in advance because you may not like what you will read in this letter below.

You see, we have lived together in peace for years now. But, off late, I have started feeling dizzy having you on my side. Please don’t feel bad because I will soon explain my reasons for what I’m feeling now with respect to our relationship.

I remember you as early as the age of five, when you clouded my mind as soon as I saw my richer cousins with remote-controlled cars, nicer clothes, and bigger houses.

You stayed with me even as I was passing through high school. Those years, you made me jealous of my friends who scored higher marks then me and thus got a greater appreciation from the girls in the class. Then, when I was in college, you held my hand tight as I saw other classmates who arrived in their own cars while I took rickety buses. When I saw them also having cell phones, I felt your hug even tighter.

There were also times I found myself jealous of people who had no conscience and were famous for that. You made me think that I should become just like them. Thank God I didn’t!

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Latticework of Mental Models: Complex Adaptive Systems

This article is the first of this new weekly series called ‘Latticework of Mental Models’, which will be authored by my friend and partner in writing the Value Investing Almanack, Anshul Khare. Anshul will write on various mental models – big ideas from various disciplines – which can help you think more rationally while analyzing businesses and making your stock investment decisions.

Let me share with you two very interesting case studies. The first one is set in the time of British India.

The British government was concerned about the number of venomous cobra snakes in Delhi. The government therefore offered a bounty for every dead cobra. Initially this was a successful strategy as large numbers of snakes were killed for the reward. Eventually, however, enterprising people began to breed cobras for the income. When the government became aware of this, the reward program was scrapped, causing the cobra breeders to set the now-worthless snakes free. As a result, the wild cobra population further increased. The apparent solution for the problem made the situation even worse. (Source – Wikipedia)

Now there is no way to validate the authenticity of above story but the second one is very recent and a true incident set again in the city of Delhi. It’s equally amusing.

Corporate Governance: How They Pay Themselves

The organizers of a tennis tournament needed money. They approached the CEO of a big company and asked him to sponsor the tournament.

“How much?” asked the CEO.

“One million,” said the organizer.

“That is too much money,” said the CEO.

“Not if you consider the fact that you personally can play one match, sit at the honorary stand next to a member of the presidential family and be the one that hands over the prize,” said the organizer.

“Where do I sign?” said the CEO.

That’s the power of incentives, you see. People do what they perceive as in their best interest and are biased by incentives.

Look at the brokerage business. Stock brokers have a strong incentive to get us to trade. They advise us what to buy and sell. Volume creates commissions. Investment bankers encourage overpriced acquisitions to generate fees. Investment bankers have every incentive to get initial public offerings (IPO) deals done, regardless of the company’s quality. Their compensation is tied to the revenues the deal brings in. Analysts are rewarded for helping sell the IPO. Brokers want to move the stock.

What did Groucho Marx say? “I made a killing on Wall Street a few years ago…I shot my broker.”

Similarly, in the medical field, some psychologists ensure themselves future income by telling their patients that another visit is required. And they don’t talk about the limits of their knowledge. Their careers are at stake. As American actor Walther Matthau said, “My doctor gave me six months to live. When I told him I couldn’t pay the bill, he gave me six more months.”
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Measuring the Moat – Part 1

“We like stocks that generate high returns on invested capital,” Warren Buffett told those in attendance at Berkshire’s 1995 annual meeting, “where there is a strong likelihood that it will continue to do so.”

“I look at long-term competitive advantage,” he later added, “and [whether] that’s something that’s enduring.”

According to Buffett, the economic world is divided into a small group of franchises and a much larger group of commodity businesses, most of which are not worth purchasing.

He defines a franchise as a company whose product or service (1) is needed or desired, (2) has no close substitute, and (3) is not regulated.

Individually and collectively, these create what Buffett calls a ‘moat’ – something that gives the company a clear advantage over others and protects it against incursions from the competition.

Poke the Box: There Are No Silver Bullets in Investing

Let’s Start with Safal Niveshak
Just in case you missed any of this on Safal Niveshak over the last few days…

I have opened admission to the 4th batch of my Mastermind Value Investing Course. Click here to know more and join now.
Read my interview with Niveshak, the monthly magazine released by the Finance Club of Indian Institute of Management, Shillong.
Aswath Damodaran shares two bitter truths of stock valuation, and how you can avoid them.
Read when I (almost) dumped Ben Graham’s The Intelligent Investor, and why you mustn’t.
Hilarious but honest take on how a lot of companies that come out with their IPOs really operate and sell their shares to public.

Mastermind Value Investing Course: 4th Batch Admission Now Open!

Admission to the fourth batch of The Safal Niveshak Mastermind – my eight-month online course in Value Investing – is now open, and will remain so for the next 10 days.

Click Here to Join Mastermind Now
My idea through Mastermind is simple – to help you with a simple, common-sense approach to successful investing, so that you can avoid the uncertainty and outlandish time you would otherwise spend doing it all alone.

I’ve lined up a lot of things that you will receive when you become a part of The Safal Niveshak Mastermind. Here’re the key ones…

50+ lessons and few hours of video classes that will help you learn the nuances of Value Investing and how you can apply it to create long-term wealth through stock investing.
Lessons on identifying moats and analyzing specific sectors to help you build your circle of competence.
Lessons on building a latticework of mental models – the Charlie Munger way – to make better investment decisions.
Lessons on calculating Intrinsic Values of stocks.
Lessons on creating a portfolio of high-quality stocks.
Exclusive Forum to participate in learning exercises and discuss practical examples so that you can gain experience in doing your own independent analysis.

Over the past few years, I’ve sifted through a mountain of amazing books, documents, lectures, websites, and the last twelve years of my personal experience as an investor – to ensure that I bring the best ideas and lessons for you in investing and building wealth.

The goal of The Safal Niveshak Mastermind Course is simple – To help you get richer every single day.

This is your opportunity to become a simpler, sensible, long-term investor, and avoid the uncertainty and outlandish time and pain that you would otherwise spend doing it all alone.

Here are the key features of the Course –

100% online, self-study course
Convenient 24X7 online availability of all lessons
Downloadable basic excel models and templates
Members-only Forum for discussions and performing exercises after each lesson
Quizzes to test your understanding of key concepts
Premium access to the exclusive Mastermind website

Now, if you are willing and ready…

Let Me Offer You a Deal
The Safal Niveshak Mastermind, with all its invaluable contents and benefits as I have mentioned above, is priced at Rs 12,500/- (incl. taxes).

However, if you are among the first 100 subscribers, you can claim an early-bird discount of Rs 1,000.

Click Here to Join Mastermind Now

By the way, here is what a couple of Mastermind students have to say about their experience with the Course…

I am very humbled by Vishal’s approach in the Mastermind Value Investing Course. The course is created to strengthen us in our investment skills and techniques, allowing individuals to know which stocks are fundamentally sound.

One thing that really differentiate the Mastermind course from the other investing courses is the emphasis and build up on the mindset of an investor which is really very important. I highly recommend anyone who wants to build his wealth in a wise way to be part of Vishal’s Mastermind community.

~ Sean Seah

This is one of the best courses I have ever done. As a true value investor, this is one of the best investments I have made. I thoroughly enjoyed the course and would be happy to recommend the course to anyone who is interested in value investing.

Your course is the true example of ‘The more you learn, the more you’ll earn.’

~ Antony Sakkariyas

If you have any further question(s) about the Course, please write to me at vishal@safalniveshak.com, or call me at +91-8097073918.