Investing Behaviour

Is this a Good Time to Be a Value Investor?

A reader of The Safal Niveshak Post sent me this email yesterday…

For the last few days, one question is worrying me. As a value investor, even if I choose value stocks after thorough analysis of the business, how do I factor in general macro-economic environment, global slowdown, etc.? How do I know these macro-economic factors will not keep markets subdued for years to come? How do we identify if it’s not great depression again?

Just to add, is there a wrong time for value picking, or is it always the right time as long as there’s thorough analysis and sufficient margin of safety

Very important questions, I must say.

Traditionally, value investors have tended to ignore macro-economic issues and have focused on bottom-up investing.

An Open Letter to My Daughter

My dearest Kavya,

These past seven-and-a-half years seem to have gone by like the blink of an eye.

You’ve gone from a newborn princess cradled in my arms to a small princess experiencing the joy and independence that life can bring.

I can still recall the moment I got the news of your birth. I was not by your side then, but I felt like the happiest father on earth. Your mother and I marveled at your red cheeks, wrinkled fingers, and your intense eyes.

Your birth gave me the experience of my lifetime…an experience that holds the most precious place in my heart.

Some Advice for the Young…and Broke

Young and Broke I generally don’t like offering advice on this platform – Safal Niveshak is all about sharing my experiences and learning as an investor and manager of my own money. So the headline of this post seems a bit awkward to me.

But then, what follows is my response to some common claims that I’ve heard from a lot of well-educated and confident (yet broke) young people…and I was one of them a few year back. (I’m still educated and confident, but have taken care of that ‘broke’ part :-))

Here are some things I’ve been hearing all around from the young with respect to their careers and finances, and my thoughts on their thoughts…

Psychology of a Stock Market Loser

Here’s part of a conversation I had last weekend with a friend who wanted me to help him out with his loss-making stocks. Let’s call him Rohan.

Me: Why are you so depressed?

Rohan: I hate my stocks.

Me: Oh, another member of the pretty big ‘I hate my stocks’ club?

Rohan: I’m sick of looking at my stocks. And given that the markets are falling, I haven’t looked at my portfolio for days!

Me: What stocks do you own at the moment?

Rohan: Don’t want to show.

Real Life Story: How to Increase Your Savings by 9200%

Most queries I’ve received on Safal Niveshak over the past ten months have been from young men, either newly married, or already with one child. And most of their questions have revolved around…

How do I start saving and investing money?
How do I plan for a well-structured financial life?
How do I meet my life goals?

While I have responded to these queries, here is the real life story of a close friend (let’s call him Ravi) who was in the same fix almost 9 years ago, how he has been progressing well towards his financial goals (at least what it seems as of now), and how he has grown his savings by a massive 9200% over four stages of his life.

Start Worrying about Your Personal Finances. Seriously!

Last Saturday, I was amongst a group of young architects (age-group of 25 to 35), lecturing on the art of managing one’s own personal finances, and the need to start saving and investing as early as possible.

Lecture on Personal Financial Planning at DesignWorks

At the end of it, I asked them, “So are you worried after listening to what I said?”

Some were surprised to hear this. “Worried? Why?” one of them asked.

“Indeed, I am very worried!” said another.

“Worried, and excited,” said the third.

Investor, Do You Know Where You Are Going?

“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?”

“That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,” said the Cheshire Cat.

“I don’t much care where…” said Alice.

“Then it doesn’t matter which way you go,” said the Cat.

“…just so long as I get SOMEWHERE,” Alice added as an explanation.

“Oh, you’re sure to do that,” said the Cat, “if you only walk long enough.”

~ Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland

This discussion from Alice in Wonderland says a lot about how we keep trying (keep walking) when we are aiming to get somewhere, or achieve something, in life (like financial freedom).

But then, let me ask, when it comes to your financial and investing life – “Do you know where you are going?”

‘Einstein Way’ to Get Over the Stock Market Insanity

Albert Einstein defined insanity as ‘doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results’.

In the stock market, these are some things that most people do, over and over again…

Worry where the Sensex is moving next
Worry where interest rates are moving next
Worry what FIIs will do next
Worry about the GDP growth next quarter and next year
Worry about the government’s fiscal deficit targets
Worry what the next quarter might bring for companies
Worry what will happen in the US, Europe, and China
Worry why most people are worried about these worries

The truth is that these worries either keep people away from investing, or these lead them to make serious errors of judgment with their investments.

Investor, Mind Your Behaviour!

Were you ever punished in school for not behaving properly in the class?

If you are like me, you must have experienced the happiness (mixed with some embarrassment) of being an ‘out-standing’ student on a regular basis! But then, you must have behaved well after that punishment.

Sometimes I wonder if we as adults were always guided and punished by our teachers for all our mistakes and mindless behaviour. Growing up and moving out of school gives us a lot of freedom to behave the way we want to. But then, for some of us, it becomes a license to behave any which way…even at the cost of our own peace, and money.

Talking about stock markets, the pundits will tell you that to learn to invest, you need to read the theory books. You need to understand complex accounting. You need to know the jargons, the P/E, the EV/EBDITA, the SOTP.

What these pundits however fail to tell you is that before you get to all that investing theory, you need to work on the practical. You need to study ‘yourself’…your behaviour.

New Investor? Know these 6 Things for a Safe Investment Journey

I often meet people who are just starting out as stock market investors but have no idea where to begin.

Then there are others who have been investors for some time, but are still clueless about taking their next, and the next step.

If this is the case with you as well, here are 6 simple things that you must keep in mind as you enter the stock market.

These are in fact the 6 lessons that I have learnt the hard way over the years. But you must not go through the same cycle, and these lessons will help you be safe, and emerge successful, in your investment journey.

Let’s start right here.