Investing

Safal Niveshak completes nine years today. 🙂

I started with a simple idea in 2011, that of helping people become better at their stock market investment decisions. The idea was just that, and I had no clue how I would do it (I still have no clue about the future!)

However, a lot has happened in these nine quick years – and the tribe is nearing 85,000 members – but as with any kid of this age, we’re just getting started.

Most of all, I want to thank you for “raising” this initiative to this point — it truly could not have happened without you, dear tribe member.

I know I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating – Thank you so much for reading, for commenting, for your interest and support, for helping this entire movement of creating smarter and independent stock market investors become greater and spread wider.

You are magnificent, and I am supremely grateful for your time and attention.

Just in case Safal Niveshak has touched your life, I would be happy and honored to read your thoughts in the Comments section of this post.

Thanks again for being here!

With respect,
Vishal

If your portfolio earns 50% in one year and then loses 50% the next year, you are back to the same level, right?

Wrong!

Your two year return is still a negative 25%.

Here’s the calculation. Rs 100 becomes Rs 150 in year one, and then halves to Rs 75 in year two. So, net-net, you are down from Rs 100 to Rs 75 over two years, which is a -25% decline.

This seems elementary, but a lot of us miss this simple math.

Anyways, the point I am trying to make today is not about our innumeracy, but that to achieve a high return over a long period of time, we must focus on minimizing our mistakes.

[Read more…] about As Long As You Don’t Lose Money

This real-life story dates back to 2014, and it’s about my father.

During summer holidays, we were at our hometown in West Bengal where my father ran his business.

He was generally a healthy person, but for the previous few months he was having slight pain around his left shoulder. The pain was occasional and thus he did not bother to get it checked up. Ours was a very small town, and we were living at its outskirts. The nearest orthopedic doctor was around 20-km away, and so my father did not bother to visit him for a check up once.

One early morning, he woke up with an intense pain in that very shoulder. He took a pain killer, thinking the pain was due to him sleeping on his left side, with his arm pressed under his upper body. The pain reduced a bit, but stayed for a couple of more hours.

[Read more…] about A Simple Formula for Survival in Life and Investing

I received this email from a reader recently-

Boss, I’d prefer to read actionable articles on what stocks you like, and what trends you are seeing in the markets, etc. and not these crappy “how to think and invest better” articles. ~ AJ

And then this slightly more respectable one –

Your posts are like sermons. Please write about your stock picks, your predictions, and how sectors and markets are likely to perform in the future. ~ MK

[Read more…] about Why I Write What I Write?

“My luck is about to change. The trend will reverse.”

Assume India and Pakistan are playing a one-day international series of 10 matches. Today is the ninth match and the Indian captain Virat Kohli is tossing a fair coin. Pakistan won all the tosses in the previous eight matches. The series is currently tied at 4 – 4.

What is the probability of Kohli winning the toss today?

P (Kohli winning the toss) = No of favorable outcomes / Total no of outcomes = 1 / 2 = 0.5, or 50%

[Read more…] about Chance Has No Memory