Investing

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My Stock Market View (and a Prediction) for 2013

Readers who follow me of Facebook or Twitter know that I’ve been sounding a tad bearish in recent times.

Some have ever termed me a permabear* for my thoughts on the near term future of the Indian economy and the stock market.

While I am not into the game of predicting the future of stock prices – near term or long term – I occasionally speak of concerns when I see them.

These are my points of view and not predictions. And this time isn’t any different!

These days, I’m hearing a lot of predictions about a beautiful and steady rise for the Sensex in 2013. I do not want to insult you with another prediction.

My 3 Recommendations to Change Your Life in 2013 and Beyond

I know you opened this post to read about two stock recommendations that can change your life in 2013. Right? 🙂

But sorry, this post isn’t about stock recommendations. It’s about recommendations that are much more important for your life and investing, as you’d soon find out.

But before that…

Whenever I take extended leaves from Safal Niveshak, I get a few emails from tribesmen who are seemingly worried about my whereabouts (maybe they try to ensure that I keep off for a few more days). 🙂

It wasn’t different this time as well, as I took a break starting Christmas. Now if you are wondering where I have been and what I’ve been doing all these days, here’s the short story.

The Best of Safal Niveshak in 2012

What a year it has been!

Starting with 250 readers and a few believers, Safal Niveshak closes 2012 with over 4,000 tribesmen, and a lot of them actually believers in what I’m trying to do here.

It might be too early to say this, but given hundreds of emails I’ve received in this year so far, Safal Niveshak is developing a few traditions as far as sensible investing is concerned.

One of them is “independence of thought”, which I believe will ultimately lead to objectivity and rationality in the way you behave as an investor.

Art of Investing Workshop in Kolkata

So the end of the world passed us by, without troubling us much! 🙂

Now that we are alive and kicking, and making plans for the future, let me announce Safal Niveshak’s first “Art of Investing Workshop” for 2013.

After the amazing feedback from Bangalore, Chennai, Mumbai, New Delhi, Pune and Ahmedabad, here’s your chance to attend the Workshop in Kolkata.

Here are the details of the Workshop…

How to Invest After the End of the World

End of the World “Eternity is really long, especially near the end.” ~ Woody Allen

The world is about to end, once again!

This time, the doomsday scare comes from the ancient Mayans, whose calendar runs out in 2012, as interpreted by some opportunistic authors and film makers.

So just because someone, 1,100 years ago, failed to see days after December 21 2012, the world is supposed to come to an end today (well, exactly at 4.42 AM IST tomorrow morning, because even the apocalypse follows US timings)!

Anyways, whatever the end that’s coming, isn’t that the best news ever? Seriously, think about it.

How to Read Financial Statements – Part 1

How to Read Financial Statements Ever since I wrote posts on the importance of reading annual reports and how to read annual reports, I’ve received a lot of emails from readers on a post on analyzing financial statements.

In a classic case of procrastination, I did not write that post so far.

But my guilt has got the better of me, and the result is this video that will help you with the basics of financial statements and how you can study the inter-linkages between the three – P&L account, balance sheet, and cash flow statement.

The Simplest Thing You Can Do for Your Wealth (and Health)

Simplicity I’ve received a few emails in the past from people saying that my way of teaching investing at Safal Niveshak is too simplistic…and that wealth creation isn’t as simple as I make out to be.

Interestingly, some even ask me for stock tips as a proof that what I teach here really works.

Like someone wrote to me on Twitter recently – “Top 3 ideas @ CMP batao toh jaane aap kitne safal ho.” (Only if you can tell me top 3 stock ideas to buy at the current price would I know how successful you are).

I replied – “If I had to do that, I wouldn’t have quit my job. I’m not here to prove anything!”

Really, Safal Niveshak isn’t here to prove anything. My aim is to just drill the amazing wisdom on wealth creation through investing that’s already out there, and in the simplest way I can.

It’s entirely upto you, dear reader, to take it or leave it.

How I Quit My Job And Found Myself

I Quit Here’s a ‘scary’ email I received from a reader recently…

…I am writing this email to seek your opinion on a career move I’ve made recently. Taking inspiration from you, I’ve quit my job and have started as a full time investor. This I think was the best route for me to attain financial freedom, like you have attained.

I have been highly inspired by you and your work, and thus wanted to seek your view on what I can do to become a successful value investor and attain financial freedom…

It feels great to be an inspiration to someone, but it feels scary if the “inspired” gets the wrong inspiration.

In fact, I’ve received several such emails and calls in the past with people asking me how they can become full time investors like me, and achieve financial freedom at a young age.

When I Met the Legends of Investing – Part 3

“Please wake me up at 5’o clock!” I told my wife the night before my Investing Workshop in Ahmedabad.

“Why don’t you put on your alarm?” she asked.

“You already know my expertise in clicking the snooze button, don’t you? And by the way, I must get up early tomorrow as I need to prepare for the Workshop presentation.”

“You always have to do things at the last moment!” she remarked.

“Can’t help! There’re so many new things I need to learn and share with my tribesmen, that I must constantly wear my learning hat…even at 5’o clock in the morning!”

“Wish you could devote so much time to me as well!” she replied in admonishment.

Anyways, lucky as I am at most times (touchwood!), just the night before the Workshop, I saw the third part of my dream where I met the investing legends.

The dream was timely as I used a lot of what I learnt that night during the Workshop.

Here’s the transcript of my dream. (Read Part 1 | Part 2)

Wit, Wisdom, Charlie: Elementary Worldly Wisdom from Charlie Munger (Issue #5)

“I hated discussing ideas with investors, because I then became a defender of the idea and that influences your thought process.” ~ Michael Burry (The Big Short)

I’m sure this is one statement most of you will relate to. We often discuss stock ideas which, we understand, are contingent to future events but if we declare/discuss the ideas in public, irrespective of how the events unfold, it becomes extremely difficult (subconsciously) for us to change the stance we have taken in public.

Mohnish Pabrai of Pabrai Funds has often repeated during his annual investor meetings that he doesn’t discuss current stock investments as it clouds judgment.

I practice the same rule (but for a different reason – that of avoiding extreme embarrassment in future). 🙂