No One Has Any Idea

Based on requests from people loving my Saturday posts, I’m experimenting to be more regular in sharing stuff I’m reading and thinking about, in bits like pieces. Let me know if you find this exercise useful, so I may carry on.

Here are the five top things I read today –

• Howard Marks’ latest memo is out, and he has titled it Uncertainty. Marks writes – “The field of economics is muddled and imprecise, and there’s good reason it’s called “the dismal science.” Unlike a “real” science like physics, in economics there are no rules that one can count on to consistently produce a given outcome, as in “if a, then b.” There are only patterns that tend to repeat, and while they may be historical, logical and often-observed, they’re still only tendencies…Which means we don’t have past patterns to fall back on or to extrapolate from. As I’ve said, if you’ve never experienced something before, you can’t say you know how it’s going to turn out.” In short, what Marks says is that when it comes to economics, or finance, or investing for that matter, NO ONE has any idea! So let us not pretend to have one, and just put our heads down and work hard in the present than predict the future.
• Marks quotes Lao Tzu in his memo – “Those who have knowledge don’t predict; those who predict don’t have knowledge.” Which side are you on? By the way, he also quotes George Orwell – “People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome.” That’s confirmation bias for you.
• I struck gold, and wanted to share with you too. Amidst the noise, fear, and panic all around about widespread wealth destruction, here is the collection of all the interviews about Naval Ravikant’s ‘How to Get Rich’ tweetstorm. It’s hard to find a higher value page on the internet than this!
• I always thought there is just “good luck” and “bad luck.” Marc Andreessen, however, writes that luck is of four types. He writes with an entrepreneur in mind, but the idea also applies to an investor and everyone else.
• Mint covers an opinion piece about the sinking feeling white collar workers in India are going through, amidst the spate of job losses and declining salaries led by the pandemic. The Atlantic posts that the future of jobs after the pandemic is a blurry mix of work, life, pajamas, and Zoom…and that – “The post-pandemic workplace will have fewer lunches, happy hours, and conferences where schmoozers can make their mark. People who succeed are therefore likely to be those who can generate results without a lot of in-person interaction with their colleagues. So if your main job skill is networking, you might want to learn the art of actually working.” 🙂

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That’s about it from me for today.

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Stay safe.

With respect,
— Vishal